Opinion Post-post-Mandal

First,in both states,while it seems to have been generally understood that the Mandal tide may have ebbed,the “M-Y” (Muslim-Yadav) factor which helped the Samajwadi Party and the RJD is cracking,and the battle seems to be for castes and communities absolutely at the bottom of the social ladder. In UP,the contest is for Dalits,while in Bihar for the extremely backward castes,so far out of the pale of the political battle,as they were hard to campaign to,to organise and keep close. Thus there are new and unique problems parties are encountering,paradoxes and shadows of the old way of doing things,of new communities being stuffed in retrofitted bottles.

UP’s case is straightforward. Twenty years ago,there was the old Congress formula which served them well,putting the upper castes (a larger proportion of the population than in other states),Muslims and Dalits together,creating a reasonably “stable” polity. However,the forces unleashed by

Mandal brought suppressed inter-caste anger and rivalry to the fore — so OBC leaders,led by the Yadavs,took on the upper castes and even Dalits,who now had a party of “their own” to vote for,the BSP. This split the Congress’s social coalition,splintering the polity,with Muslims terrified at the BJP’s rise on the back of communal polarisation,unsure of where the Congress stood,cycling off with Mulayam Singh Yadav.

However,20 years of assertion of different caste combinations (UP has seen the BJP,SP and BSP in power at different times) have apparently yielded a phase when tough questions are being asked about what,if anything,they have got other than symbols of empowerment (Lohia or Ambedkar parks/ memorials,hardly any schools,not even better-regulated garbage collection). New industry has not got a foothold,and old industries,whether in western UP,Kanpur or Mirzapur,appear to be in grave decline. Hence,the Congress,which has now much at stake having registered an unexpected tally of 21 Lok Sabha seats,is out to wrest the Dalits’ confidence back from Mayawati on the promise of materially delivering and offering solidarity. It is easy to laugh at the “Dalit tourism” of Congress MPs,but it is only the surface of the battle to recover the loyalty of those who have,despite reservations being a constitutional fact of life,been pushed to the edges. How this plays out will decide the political and economic and social future of UP.

Bihar is more complicated,as a Dalit/ Ambedkarite consciousness has never been the predominant fact of politics here. Caste “combinations” and hard-core land interests (upper caste and empowered OBCs) have polarised politics. Lalu Prasad accepted the “izzat” formula (pretty close to the Self-Respect movement in Tamil Nadu,but much less radical) but snarled at the word “development”. When,again analogous to UP,this ran out of steam,the people voted in Nitish Kumar,who dwelt on the need to “develop”.

Nitish Kumar,riding the upper-caste vote (via the BJP alliance),himself a backward icon,was able through skilled management of overtures to Muslims too to creatively take off from where Lalu’s politics seemed to peter out and offer a new paradigm. However,as was clear in his first two years at least,he wanted to create more of an awakening among the most or extremely backward castes in Bihar — the Mahadalits. That deepening of the political process has resulted in violent expression — the recent killings of Kurmis (apparently by people of an extremely backward Musahar community) have highlighted the extremely entangled problems that emerge when other communities feel outraged at even a whiff of the old order changing. So much so that Nitish Kumar’s government keeps restating,especially to those in his powerful landed base,via his BJP deputy,that his government has no intention of any land transfer to “bataidars” (share-croppers),the unfinished and controversial business related to the abolition of zamindari in the mid-’50s. His government had commissioned a report under a key West Bengal officer at the time of Operation Barga in the ’70s; it was even laid on the table in the Vidhan Sabha in June,but it was followed up with repeated statements on how the status quo would be maintained.

In essence,in both states the effort is to get new groups,caste and other interests,aligned with your coalition. But the Lok Sabha election showed a marginalisation of the pure old caste argument,and there is opportunity to craft new alliances. On the face of it they are two different processes. Nitish Kumar is trying to “create” a Mahadalit base (a political space in opposition to both Lalu/ Paswan and the BJP’s traditional base) but masking all this under what he would want to be classified as “development” politics. In UP,the Congress is trying to talk of a change in paradigm (Rahul Gandhi’s speeches peppered with talk of “the poor” shorn of any other identity) but resorting to obviously courting the Dalits back from Mayawati.

The challenge for all ambitious parties in UP and Bihar is not just to devise a new way of doing things but also to find new constituents. The coming assembly elections are an obvious deadline by which all parties hope to mop up fresh support — a difficult call in areas which are deeply political,politicised and caste-ridden. Channelling the restlessness in the electorate,characterised by a complex and complicated demand for political and material empowerment and respect for the rule of law,is key for any political party which wants to get ahead. In the face of deeply entrenched “interests” in these states,this would call for immense political courage,craft and imagination.

seema.chishti@expressindia.com