Opinion Obama & the Lama

It imposed sanctions on US businesses involved in the sale and suspended planned US-Chinese military exchanges. Beijing claims Taiwan is an integral part of China and considers such sales a violation of China’s “core national interests”.

It now turns out that Beijing has held back from canceling the entire military exchange programme,a more extreme step. Instead,they called off only scheduled meetings,leaving open the option of quickly restarting the program. Last week China gave permission for the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Nimitz to make a port call at Hong Kong.

The many friends of China in Washington are declaring that the decision on the Nimitz,which will steam into Hong Kong this week,is a major indicator of Beijing’s flexibility.

Meanwhile,Washington too will do all it can to lower the tension with Beijing. The indications are that Obama’s meetings with the Dalai Lama will more formal and less warm than those that the spiritual leader of the Tibetan people has had at the White House with George W. Bush. As a gesture to Beijing on the eve of his visit to China last November,Obama postponed a meeting with the Dalai Lama in Washington. It is believed that he had told the Chinese leaders that he indeed plans to meet with the Tibetan leader.

As Washington and Beijing seek to carefully limit their tensions,the Tibetan exiles are left in an unenviable spot. The meeting with Obama means China will pour more venom on the Dalai Lama,while the American engagement with the Tibetans become more pro forma.

IR Theory

While Beijing and Washington step back from the brink,a section of Chinese scholars of international relations are convinced that a confrontation between the hegemonic power,the US,and the rising power,China,might be inevitable. According a commentary in the People’s Daily last week,the very nature of our understanding of international relations might change with the relative decline of the West and the growing influence of Chinese,Islamic and Indian civilisations.

An important section of Chinese scholarship is deeply involved in constructing a “Chinese theory” of international relations. Whether they get there are not,there is no denying Chinese academia’s new self-assurance. Beijing has sent thousands of students over the last three decades to universities in the US and Western Europe to master the Western social sciences. It is now gearing to create an “oriental” theory of international relations.

Cold War

Defence Minister A.K. Antony’s statement that the new troops being raised for deployment in the North-east are not directed at China might have been a well-intentioned one. But few in Beijing take such statements seriously. For they know that so long as it is kept off-balance by Pakistan,India poses no threat to China.

The Chinese establishment’s security perceptions of India are rooted in a realistic assessment of India’s strengths and weaknesses. A recent analysis pointed to India’s arms purchases from Russia and America and its intensified military diplomacy with Nepal,Bhutan,Myanmar and Maldives. It argued that “despite its arms purchases from the great powers and military penetration of neighboring countries,it remains extremely unlikely that India will unleash all-out conflict with China.” It points to the fact that the “Sino-Indian dialogue and negotiation mechanisms are still operating.”

“While a ‘cold war’ between the two countries is increasingly likely,a ‘hot war’ is out of the question,” the analysis affirms. It concludes that India will remain tied down by the burden of “containing Pakistan and fighting terrorism” for the foreseeable future.

The writer is Henry A Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Relations at the Library of Congress,Washington DC