Opinion Chinese takeaway

Kabul now sees a critical Chinese role — both political and economic — in the endgame that is playing out in Afghanistan. For Beijing,in turn,limiting the instability on its turbulent south-western frontiers is an important national security objective.

Karzai will be received by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and President Hu Jintao in Beijing. The Afghan president wants to expand his manoeuvring room vis-a-vis the United States and Pakistan.

Ever since the Obama administration signalled its displeasure with Karzai and Washington’s special representative Richard Holbrooke sought to undermine him,the Afghan president has recognised the importance of striking out on his own.

Karzai outsmarted Holbrooke during the presidential elections last year,when the US diplomat backed Dr. Abdullah to replace the incumbent president. Karzai also surprised Washington and the international community at the recent London Conference when he announced a separate plan for engaging the Taliban.

If the Obama administration wanted to focus the local Taliban commanders in southern and eastern Afghanistan,Karzai’s plans aim at a power sharing arrangement with the Taliban leadership.

Karzai’s attempts to build an independent line to the Pashtun opposition in Afghanistan alarmed the Pakistan army which chose to arrest Karzai’s main interlocutor with the Taliban,Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar a few weeks ago.

While the Pakistan army wants to control all engagement with the Taliban and other groups currently hostile to Kabul,Karzai has not given up.

A day before he flew into Beijing,the Afghan President met with a delegation of Hezb-e-Islami,one of the major opposition groups led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

The favourite of the ISI among the anti-Soviet Mujahideen groups during the 1980s,Hekmatyar fell out of favour in Rawalpindi and has trodden a separate path from the Taliban. Karzai is determined to survive the American and Pakistani efforts to marginalise him in the construction of new political arrangements for Kabul. Meanwhile,the evolving situation in Afghanistan and China’s self-perception as a rising power have triggered a major debate within Beijing on the kind of role it must play in the north-western parts of the subcontinent.

The Wakhan Corridor

China’s growing interest in Afghanistan is reflected in its aid programme that has now reached nearly US$ 250 million. Kabul has also encouraged Chinese companies to join the economic reconstruction of Afghanistan and the development of its natural resources.

The China Metallurgical Group’s decision to put US $3.5 billion in a copper mining project has been billed as the largest single foreign investment to date in Afghanistan.

Kabul has also been pressing Beijing to develop transport links between the two countries through the Wakhan corridor that links north-eastern Afghanistan with the Xinjiang province. Building a modern highway into Afghanistan fits in with the general Chinese effort to link its frontier regions with the countries across the border. Road links to Afghanistan can easily be spun off from the many current ambitious transportation projects between China and Pakistan.

Beijing is yet to take a decision,however,on the Wakhan project. There is some wariness in China about a potential negative dynamic — the prospect of Islamic extremism spilling over from Afghanistan and Pakistan into the restive Xinjiang province which saw riots between Han Chinese and the Muslim Uighurs last year.

Beijing’s prudence

The Obama administration is also in close consultations with China on Afghanistan and wants Beijing to do more. Unlike in Delhi’s think-tank circuit,where there is great enthusiasm for a larger Indian political role in Afghanistan,caution dominates Beijing’s debate.

Chinese analysts say Beijing is deeply concerned about the instability in Afghanistan but will not participate in what they see as an American effort to organise the country’s internal affairs. Beijing,Chinese scholars say,would want at the minimum a solid UN political mandate before it agrees to join the international security forces in Afghanistan.

For now,Beijing might be focused on judging how far Karzai might go in asserting his autonomy from Washington. They would also be interested in knowing the implications for regional stability from the proposed reintegration and reconciliation with the Taliban.

express@expressindia.com