Why Rae Bareli matters

The Gandhis did not have any non-political association with the two constituencies. Sanjay Gandhi selected under-developed Amethi as a potential pocketborough as late as 1977. Indira Gandhi took over her husband Feroze Gandhi8217;s constituency of Rae Bareli in 1967. Her father, Jawaharlal Nehru8217;s constituency was Phulpur. Opposition parties are quick to point out that despite being represented by the most powerful political family in the country, both Amethi and Rae Bareli continue to be among the poorest and most under-developed parts of Uttar Pradesh, lagging behind in infrastructure and industry.

Rahul Gandhi, however, has turned out to be a more conscientious MP than other family members, who preferred to focus on national affairs. He has put corporate style systems in place, computerising data on requests and complaints and the follow-up action taken. Ironically, his party is unhappy with Rahul micro-managing his constituency. They believe that his charisma and efforts should be projected on the larger canvas of UP, rather than be confined to the family fiefdom.

Congress workers were jubilant when the media recently interpreted a stray remark of Rahul to imply that he was finally going to take up the challenge of seeking relevance in the entire state and not restrict himself to a small pocket. A few days later, Gandhi poured cold water on their hopes by clarifying that the press had read far more into his innocuous remarks than he had intended: 8216;8216;You guys went out and gave it the remark a life of its own.8217;8217;

Some wonder whether it is not too late already for Rahul, despite his enormous electoral appeal, to make an impact in a state where his party has practically withered away. Both the national parties, Congress and BJP, have been left far behind by the two regional caste-based parties, Samajwadi Party and BSP. In the last assembly election in 2002, the Congress was down to a mere 25 seats, of a total of 403. In the 2004 parliamentary poll the Congress managed only nine seats.

It is a huge slide for the Congress which was for decades the premier party in India8217;s largest state, with which the Nehru-Gandhi family has traditional links, with their family home in Allahabad. The Congress once commanded the loyalty of brahmin, dalit and Muslim voters, giving it an electoral edge over rival parties like the Lok Dal, the Jana Sangh and the socialist parties which depended largely on OBC, bania and thakur votes.

L.K. Advani8217;s rath yatra on the emotive temple issue persuaded a sizeable chunk of brahmin voters to hush their long-time party loyalties. In 1989 the Congress slid to just 15 Lok Sabha seats as the BJP capitalised on the Ram Janambhoomi movement. Muslim voters also started deserting the Congress after the Babri Masjid demolition of 1992. Mulayam Singh Yadav carved out a capacious political space for himself as the protector of the Muslim-Yadav combine. Mayawati, meanwhile, stole the Congress8217;s dalit vote bank from right under its nose while she was in temporary alliance with the party. In the 1991 parliamentary election, the Congress was down to a mere five seats in UP, losing even its bastion of Rae Bareli where a distant Gandhi relative was fielded.

The Congress8217;s hopes of returning to power at the Centre in the next general elections are crucially dependent on UP which accounts for almost one-sixth of the total strength of the Lok Sabha. If the Congress is to climb out of the pit into which it has fallen for the last 15 years or so, strong medicine is required. Which explains its desperate calls for Rahul to move out of the family bastion, to which he has confined himself. The badly divided and demoralised party in UP needs Rahul8217;s leadership to provide inspiration and direction. In fact, many see Sonia Gandhi8217;s appointment of Rahul Gandhi as her campaign manager in Rae Bareli as part of a grand plan to give her son more responsibility.

Rahul8217;s plus points are his youth, sincerity and family name. In 2004 when he made his political debut in UP, his whirlwind campaign in Varanasi and central UP drew ecstatic crowds. The majority of the voters are below the age of 35 and he can tap the disenchantment with all the political heavyweights of UP.

Some contend that the Congress8217;s fortunes have sunk so low that even the Gandhi magic cannot bring a turnaround of the party in a state, where political loyalties are now based largely on caste lines. The brahmin voters in recent times having switched allegiance from the BJP to Mayawati.

But those who dismiss the Congress8217;s chances of a revival in the near future are forgetting the volatility of the UP voter. In 1977, the UP electorate8217;s anger against Indira Gandhi8217;s Emergency and the Sanjay Gandhi8217;s sterilisation drive was so intense that the Congress was defeated in every constituency in UP, including Rae Bareli and Amethi. Three years later, it won 51 seats and under Rajiv Gandhi8217;s leadership in 1984 it made practically a clean sweep, winning 83 seats. The question that begs an answer is whether Rajiv8217;s son can repeat the electoral magic of Rae Bareli in the rest of the state?

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