On a day the Reserve Bank of India RBI asserted that the moderation in wholesale price inflation has not transmitted to the retail level,Consumer Price Index CPI-based inflation estimates for May issued on Monday showed exactly the opposite. For most food items,including staples such as cereals,pulses,poultry items and vegetables,the surge in wholesale price levels is actually higher than the increase seen at the retail end.
Analysts attribute this trend,which marks a departure from the pattern seen in the previous months when retail-level inflation based on CPI was trending higher than the wholesale inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index or WPI,to traders at the wholesale-end possibly stocking up in the lean season just before the monsoon-fed sowing starts.
Others point to the possibility of this being indirect evidence that the supply bottlenecks hindering the movement of fresh produce from the fields to the markets have only improved a bit.
If the trend seen in May continues in the following months,it could provide indirect evidence that the bottlenecks present between the wholesale and retail levels could be improving, said D K Pant,director,Fitch Ratings India.
Cereals,with a combined weightage of 14.59 in the new CPI index,pulses 2.65,poultry items 2.89 and vegetables 5.44 carry the highest weightages in the overall general index.
Generally,it is presumed that the margins that middlemen charge and the wastage that takes place during transportation of fresh produce from the wholesale market to the shop shelves resulted in prices getting magnified at the retail end.
CPI inflation as measured by the new series,base year 2010 rose from 8.8 per cent in February to 9.4 per cent in March and further to 10.4 per cent in April.
In May,it stayed put at 10.4 per cent amid an increase in prices of vegetables,edible oils and milk.