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This is an archive article published on April 30, 2010

Seeking a long life?

Iceland has longest-lived men,US scores poorly; researchers say adults in need of health intervention.

Statistics has a curious way of upturning the world. The latest instance is about longevity.

AIDS,smoking and obesity are reversing progress made in helping people live longer around the world,with mortality rates worsening over the past 20 years in 37 countries,researchers reported on Thursday.

They found Icelandic men have the lowest risk of premature death,while Cypriot women do. Some rich countries such as the United States and Britain scored relatively poorly,the survey found.

In most places,men have twice the relative mortality rate of women,Dr. Christopher Murray of the University of Washington in Seattle and colleagues reported in the Lancet medical journal.

Worldwide,the 1990s reversal in the trend in adult mortality is probably a result of the HIV pandemic and the sharp rise in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union,the researchers wrote.

One of the most striking patterns is the rapid decline in adult female mortality in south Asia; in 1970 this was the region with the highest risk of female mortality and by 2010,the risk of dying before age 60 had fallen by 56 percent.

Murray and colleagues used a complex formula to calculate the probability that someone aged 15 will die before they reach 60. They believe their method paints a more accurate picture than methods used by the United Nations,and can be used to compare countries with populations of different ages.

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In the 40 years since 1970,they found,adult mortality risk fell by 34 percent among women and 19 percent in men globally.

REVERSING PROGRESS

But some places had notable reversals in rank,including the former Soviet Union. Russia has fallen from 43rd place for female mortality in 1970 to 121st.

Research shows that across countries,inequality in adult mortality has grown to the point where adult men in Swaziland 8212; the country with the worst mortality rate 8212; now have a probability of premature death that is nine times the mortality rate of the best country,Cyprus,Murray8217;s team wrote.

The United States,where 60 percent of adults are overweight or obese,fell in overall rankings,from 34th in the world in female mortality and 41st in male mortality in 1990 to 49th for women and 45th for men in 2010 8212; behind Chile,Tunisia,and Albania.

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But mortality rates fell 50 percent over the same time in South Korea.

Murray said he wanted to study adult mortality globally because so much emphasis goes into helping very young children survive.

Every year,more than 7.7 million children die before their fifth birthday; however,over three times that number of adults 8212; nearly 24 million 8212; die under the age of 60 years,his team wrote.

The prevention of premature adult death is just as important for global health policy as the improvement of child survival.

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According to the United Nations,8.8 million children under the age of 5 died in 2008.

For a longer life,go to Iceland or Cyprus

Men in Iceland have the best shot at living into old age,while women in Cyprus do,according to a study published on Thursday in the Lancet medical journal.

In most places,men have twice the relative mortality rate of women,Dr. Christopher Murray of the University of Washington in Seattle and colleagues found. Some highlights:

Iceland ranked No 1 for men in 2010,with 64.9 per 1,000 men likely to die before the age of 60.

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Iceland ranked 10th for women,with 44.2 per 1,000 females expected to die between the ages of 15 and 60.

Sweden ranked second in terms of male mortality risk; Malta ranked third,the Netherlands was fourth and Switzerland fifth.

Australia came in sixth among men,with 75.6 men and 43.9 women per 1,000 men expected to die before 60.

Britain ranked 19th among the 189 countries included,with 93 men per 1,000 risking an early death before age 60.

Korea ranked 33rd,Libya 34th and Cuba 38th.

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The United States ranked 47th globally in terms of male death risk at 129.9 per 1,000 men and 77.5 per 1,000 for women. This put it below Algeria,at 46th place,and a little above Iraq in 53rd place.

China ranked 61st,Mexico 64th and India 108th.

Swaziland had the worst male mortality risk with 764 males out of every 1,000 men aged 15 or more likely to die before reaching 60. Women did a little better with a rate of 596 8212; still over half the adult female population.

Zambia was second-worst for men out of the 189 countries covered with a 733 per 1,000 chance that a man would die between the ages of 15 and 60. But it was the worst place for a woman,with 605 per 1,000 Zambian women risking premature death.

 

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