Revolution unplugged

With todays victory,we start the third historical cycle of the Bolivarian revolution,from 2009 to 2019. Thus Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez greeted the red-flag waving Chavistas gathered outside the Milaflores presidential palace in Caracas,after comfortably winning the referendum on term limits for elected officials a victory narrowly denied him in December 2007 and one that will now allow him to stand for re-election after his second and current term ends in 2012. Hurricane Hugo recently celebrated a decade in power; a turbulent decade that gave Venezuela some social justice,but sowed the seeds of economic collapse. He claims this referendum will secure the socialist revolution; his critics say it means dictatorship.

Chavistas arent exactly mimics of Castristas; the latter evoke a more brutal regime than a state apparatus filled with staunch loyalists,feeding off populism and yet depending on votes. But the resemblance exists. Chavez has used Venezuelas oil money to fund his misiones food,health and educational programmes to uplift the barrios that have reduced poverty. But the health of the Venezuelan economy is reflected in that of its state-owned,Chavista-staffed oil giant,the Pdvsa Petroleos de Venezuela Sociedad Anonima. Chavez could blissfully import Cuban doctors and turn oil into food as long as oil hovered around the prices it did till last July. Now,oil is down to about 40 a barrel and the Pdvsa is running at a heavy loss. Oil constitutes 90 per cent of Venezuelan exports and fetches more than half its income. Then,theres inflation: a little under 30 per cent,and the highest in Latin America.

Theres another problem that the Chavez regime has done little about the escalating crime rate. Over the years,Chavistas have increasingly infringed upon freedom of expression; but the political opposition,despite this failure,has been looking less divided than earlier. Chavezs international reputation in anti-US alliance-building notwithstanding,his ride to the 2012 election may not be smooth. Perhaps,theres hope in his volte face on Barack Obama last Saturday,expressing his willingness to talk and repair ties. He should,for Venezuelas sake.