Premium
This is an archive article published on July 13, 2010

IIP data suggests stabilisation: Goldman

India's IIP data for May,although lower than expected,is a sign of stabilisation and should be read with other economic indicators,Goldman Sachs said.

India8217;s industrial production data for May,although lower than expected,is a sign of stabilisation and should be read with other economic indicators,Goldman Sachs said in a note on Monday.

Industrial output rose 11.5 percent in May from a year earlier,well below analysts8217; forecast of a 16 percent rise and the revised 16.5 percent growth in April,data showed on Monday.

8220;We think the April reading was an aberration in the industrial production series8230; the smoothed index reading of the IP suggests that after a rapid increase in 4Q2009,the IP index has stabilized,8221; economists Pranjul Bhandari and Tushar Poddar wrote in the note.

The IP data series is a very volatile one and should be seen alongside other indicators such as manufacturing PMI,motor vehicle sales as well as its own history,they added.

Motor vehicle sales growth in June came in at 33.3 percent year-on-year,higher than 32.2 percent in May.

The Manufacturing PMI Index in June came in at 57.3,lower than 59.0 in May,but still showing an expansion while the services PMI showed a continued acceleration in activity,coming in at a strong 64.0 in June compared to 58.2 in May.

Industrial production for May looks particularly weak in comparison to the April reading of 16.5 percent year-on-year growth but less weak compared to the March reading of 13.9 percent,the economists said in the note.

Story continues below this ad

Goldman Sachs expects inflation to come in at 11 percent in June and industrial growth to average to about 9 percent in the current financial year and maintains its forecast for a cumulative 300 basis points hike in 2010,with the next rate hike of 25 basis points in the July 27 policy review.

 

Latest Comment
Post Comment
Read Comments
Advertisement
Loading Taboola...
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement