Cracks and chaos in saffron camp: BJP has its hands full

MODI vs ADVANI

Last Saturday,Advani said,I tell Narendrabhai Modi that Gujarat was healthy earlier also. You have made it the best and you deserve congratulations for that. But what Chouhan and the Chhattisgarh chief minister did was wonderful.

Praising Chief Minister Shivraj Singhs Chouhan before party workers from poll-bound Madhya Pradesh may have been required,but Modis cheerleaders in the party took objection to Advani dragging his name to make his point. Modi-backers were least interested in the fact that Advani likened Chouhan with A B Vajpayee,the partys gold standard of leadership.

Fear of a fallout forced party president Rajnath Singh and Chouhan to declare that Modi was indeed the No. 1 in the partys popularity chart.

In this context,as party cadres mounted pressure on the party leadership to formally announce Modi as the BJPs prime ministerial candidate,Rajnaths plan to buy time by appointing Modi as the campaign committee chief ran into Advanis internal proposal to constitute an election management committee headed by Nitin Gadkari and an election campaign committee led by Modi.

Even before Rajnath and Advani sorted this out,Modi-backers presented this as another example of Advanis reluctance to swallow Modis rising popularity. Such is the acrimony that Modi supporters in the partys team of office-bearers do not even hesitate to claim that Advani may soon start attracting jeers if he did not fall in line. Advani supporters,however,feign ignorance of such rivalry.

SUSHMA vs JAITLEY

AS if this rivalry was not enough,there appears to be serious differences between Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley the partys leaders in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha respectively over the partys broader approach towards the next Lok Sabha elections.

They both appear to hold completely divergent views on the issue of partys leadership selection. Jaitley believes the BJPs leader should be elected on the lines of Indian equivalent of US primaries based on popularity,while Swarajs public utterances suggest the BJP leadership will be selected on the basis of acceptability because the party will also consult NDA partners before making an announcement.

If this difference persists,they remain to be at odds with each other in parliamentary strategies as well as internal organisational issues as well.

The prime two stakeholders Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha and Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha cannot agree to one name, was the response from a senior party leader after Rajnath failed to announce the in-charge for Delhi alongside other in-charges last month. Consequently,the BJP not only does not have an in-charge for Delhi but also does not have a chief ministerial candidate as it tries to upstage Sheila Dikshit.

As far as parliamentary strategies go,the divergence in approach showed in the case of economic reforms issues like the pension and insurance Bill. While the Rajya Sabha wing under Jaitley,as also Rajnath Singh,is believed to be of the opinion to engage with the government,the Lok Sabha wing under Swaraj,and also Advani,remains influenced by Yashwant Sinhas politics to stall it altogether.

RAJNATH vs SANGH

Elected as the compromise candidate for the top post after RSSs first choice Nitin Gadkari was forced to retreat,Rajnaths energies appear to be sapping in his efforts to be in the good books of the Sangh Parivar. Among his initial setbacks as party president was an attempt he made to take a grand stand on a land boundary agreement with Bangladesh. Just hours after he announced support for the pact in national interest,the Sangh Parivar and the BJPs local unit in Assam grounded him.

In another instance,Singh was forced to wait for more than a month an half before assigning responsibilities to his new team of office-bearers. This was because he could not erase the friction between two RSS nominees general secretary organisation Ram Lal and joint general secretary organisation Saudan Singh. He virtually remained a helpless bystander till the stand-off between the two RSS men subsided.

Also,Rajnath has still not managed to announce the in-charge for poll-bound Delhi because RSS nominee Ram Lal is working in tandem with Delhi unit chief Vijay Goel to appoint a pliable man. Advani,Swaraj and Jaitley are believed to be against Ram Lal on this issue,but Rajnath is priding in his indecision given the involvement of the RSS nominee.

Singh still appears to be open to be micro-managed by the RSS despite a powerful section of the party led by Advani against it.

SIMMERING

SUMMARY

While the BJP parliamentary board is a 12-member group to steer the party,the above mentioned leaders are the ones who matter the most and define the broad agenda. Others in the board Murli Manohar Joshi,Ananth Kumar,Venkaiah Naidu,Nitin Gadkari,Ram Lal and Thawarchand Gehlot remain fence-sitters whom these leaders court to lend weight to their line of thought.

Though Advani has aged,his clout can be measured from the fact that he alone held out against the Sangh Parivar to stall Gadkaris second term as party president. Party leaders say prominent leaders like Jaswant Singh,Yashwant Sinha and Uma Bharti are in his camp.

As for Modi,he has the popular support of party cadres and is not looking for allies as much the other leaders want to ally with him. In fact,most of the national office-bearers are rooting for Modi.

Even the other parliamentary board members are trying to get into his good books. For example,Parliamenary Board member Venkaiah Naidu has been going around claiming how Modi is going to change the BJPs fortunes in south India,a region he himself had been working on since losing the party presidentship.

Though Swarajs cheerleading group is a club of junior leaders,she herself is believed to be aligned with Advani.

Advani made no secret when he proposed her name as an alternative for party president. She remains an effective orator and commands wide electoral popularity. Jaitley,with his articulation and erudition,helps shape the partys position on complex issues of policy,and commands authority by way of being the party leader in the Rajya Sabha. Earlier considered an Advani loyalist,the Advani camp derides him for switching sides to Modi.

The battle for supremacy in the BJP is still on. While Advani and Swaraj are counting on the fear of losing alliance partners to maintain a stalemate till the numbers are clear after the elections,Modi and his supporters are counting on the party cadres enthusiasm to roll over any opposition to him being nominated the partys prime ministerial candidate. Though organisationally,the scales appear to be tilted in favour of Modi,it is the risk associated with Modis polarising potential that has given the other side to hold it up till now.