Bangkok siege

As feared,Thailands political standoff is threatening to get out of control. It has been two months since the so-called Red Shirts began their occupation of Bangkoks streets. Mostly supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra,the prime minister deposed in a coup in 2006 and now rallying his protégées from exile,they have resorted to all kinds of disruptions to win a concession from the government on holding snap elections. In mid-March,in the first days of the protests,they poured blood at Government House. Since then they have been holding different parts of Bangkok,warning the government against an armed crackdown,and also raising their rhetoric. Just recently a compromise almost seemed to be won,over holding elections by November,but it was lost in working out the detail.

But what started out as primarily a proxy political battle between Shinawatras protégées and a Bangkok elite with allegiance to the monarchy and the army is fast acquiring the faultlines of a civil war. Bangkok is so dominant politically and economically in Thai affairs that were the current stalemate to be consolidated as a rural versus urban and worse,class struggle,negotiating a solution could become even more difficult than it is now.

At the heart of the crisis now is the future of democracy in Thailand,won after street protests in the 90s. The Red Shirts claim that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajivas government does not have a legitimate mandate,and want an election at the earliest. Their opponents claim that the Red Shirts have been deluded into putting their numbers behind Shinawatras proxies who have wooed them with populist measures that are not necessarily in the national interest. In the past,crises would be mediated by the king. This time,the concern is not just his health,aggravated by the uncertainties of succession. It is also that the last institution that could help bridge differences may be seen to be partisan. This is why an enlightened give-and-take between the two sides is crucial.