Trouble comes in threes

Three entries on a global Top 10 list isn8217;t usually cause for a frown. Not so if you8217;re Indian and reading 8216;8216;Headlines o...

Three entries on a global Top 10 list isn8217;t usually cause for a frown. Not so if you8217;re Indian and reading 8216;8216;Headlines over the Horizon8217;8217;, the Rand Corporation8217;s list of the 10 most important security developments that aren8217;t getting the attention they deserve8217;8217;.

Published in the July-August issue of The Atlantic Monthly this past week, the list raises alarms about India8217;s 8216;8216;Hindu-Muslim divide8217;8217;, saying the 8216;8216;radicalisation of India8217;s Hindus and Muslims poses obvious domestic security challenges8217;8217;.

It goes into a funk about the 8216;8216;Teheran-New Delhi axis8217;8217;, arguing the relationship between India and Iran 8216;8216;could powerfully influence 8230; the flow of energy resources, regional and worldwide efforts to combat terrorism8217;8217; and warning 8216;8216;the consequences will not always suit US interests8217;8217;.

The Rand appraisal completes its India chapter with the 8216;8216;Indus water fight8217;8217;. The Indus Water Treaty of 1960, which addressed the water needs of both India and Pakistan, is 8216;8216;under increasing strain8217;8217;: 8216;8216;Aquifiers are being depleted, water tables are falling, waterways are severely polluted, and soils are becoming acutely saline from the overuse of underground water.8217;8217;

To C. Christine Fair, the Rand political analyst and one-time intern at the American consulate in Mumbai who wrote the Indus treaty essay, the environmental apocalypse is recipe for total war.

You wonder if Fair8217;s conclusion is, well, less than fair: 8216;8216;Demands are growing within India for a war against Pakistan to stop the proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir. The Indus dispute may end up being the crisis that finally makes that pressure too much to contain.8217;8217;

Other seven on Rand scare list

8226; The wall: The building of a 225 mile fence between Israel and the West Bank could 8216;8216;deepen Palestinian rage and enmity8217;8217;
8226; Shrinking Russia: Its population has fallen from 148 million in 1992 to 145 million now and will decline to 100 million by 2050
8226; AIDS and African armies: One of every two soldiers in Zimbabwe, Angola and Congo is HIV infected. In Tanzania it8217;s one of every three, Nigeria one of every five
8226;l Anti-satellite attack: In the next five years, Russia, China, Pakistan, North Korea and Iran will be able to nuke satellites
8226; Defence-industry goliaths: Since the US defence industry has consolidated to only a handful of players, the Pentagon8217;s fallback options have diminished
8226; Carrier shortage: The US navy has 12 aircraft carriers, needs at least 15. But if it were to order them tomorrow, it would take a decade to get all three operational
8226; Urban warfare: Tomorrow8217;s wars will be fought not in open spaces but in tightly-built cities. Even if house to house fighting in Baghdad didn8217;t happen

While the Rand scare catalogue is only informed speculation by a thinktank and scarcely state policy, it does provide a window to how influential sections in America see India or, indeed, the world.

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The section on the Hindu-Muslim violence draws heavily from the violence in Gujarat in 2002. It senses danger from an 8216;8216;aggressive brand of Hindu nationalism8217;8217;.

Replying to questions from The Indian Express, Rollie Lal 8212; the Bhagalpur-born political scientist behind the Rand Hindu-Muslim study 8212; suggested the post-9/11 demonisation of Islam in segments of western media and society may have 8216;8216;given many countries the excuse they needed to persecute innocent Muslims in the name of attacking terrorism8217;8217;.

Lal8217;s report fears Indian Muslims, 8216;8216;traditionally moderate and supportive of the secular state8217;8217;, may 8216;8216;shift their allegiance from the state to some sort of larger international Islamic movement8217;8217;. As she told this reporter, 8216;8216;Over time, the support of any citizenry depends upon their ability to claim their rights as citizens.8217;8217; Religious peace is sometimes nothing more than rule

of law.

In addition to the Indus issue, Christine Fair also tackled the Teheran question. 8216;8216;In the realm of domestic politics too,8217;8217; she writes, 8216;8216;India has strong reasons for wanting improved relations with Iran. As India witnesses a surge in Hindu nationalist politics and sentiment, it needs to signal to its marginalised and disaffected Muslim population that it has Muslim interests in mind.8217;8217;

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Fair sees the visit of Mohammed Khatami, Iranian president, to New Delhi in January 2003 as an 8216;8216;important milestone8217;8217;. Shortly afterwards the two countires began to 8216;8216;explore a defence relationship8217;8217;, beginning in March 8216;8216;with a small scale naval exercise that Indian diplomats refer to as a 8216;port call8217;8217;8217;. That 8216;8216;India sees Iran as a major buyer8217;8217; of the 8216;8216;wide array of Russian military hardware8217;8217; it now manufactures, has Rand8217;s eyeballs popping.

The Indo-Iranian equation is an old State Department chestnut. While the American embassy in New Delhi periodically, but privately, 8216;8216;voices concern8217;8217;, the Indian foreign office prefers to see its role as that of a bridge between proto-reformist Iran and the US.

During the Afghan war in 2001, all three countries actively if differently backed the Northern Alliance. The Taliban was a common foe. When Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani travelled to the US recently, the defence relationship with Iran did come up. Yet, equally, Vice-President Dick Cheney is understood to have agreed that New Delhi8217;s engagement of Teheran was potentially useful.

At Rand, they probably consider Cheney a romantic.