The second election

Ever since the Congress lost power to the Janata Party in the 1977 assembly elections, Himachal Pradesh has come to have a stable two-party system.

Ever since the Congress lost power to the Janata Party in the 1977 assembly elections, Himachal Pradesh has come to have a stable two-party system. Till then, the Jana Sangh was only a marginal force in the hill state; but once it formed government as a major constituent of the Janata conglomerate, it used this foothold to expand and consolidate its support, to the detriment of the other co-sharers of power. When the Janata Party disintegrated in 1980, the Jana Sangh, in its new incarnation as the BJP, got away with most of its organisational edifice. This provided a solid ground to the party to emerge as a serious contender for power, on its own. Thereafter, in each successive election power has been alternating between the Congress and the BJP, often by very large margins. The crucial question in the forthcoming elections is: will this happen again or will the ruling party reverse this trend by retaining power?

This question is worth considering because the electorate in HP, for obvious reasons, votes that party to power in the state which is ruling at the Centre. This factor is likely to help the Congress. However, this advantage may be offset by the incumbency factor.

Two issues are going to be significant in these polls: massive unemployment and rising prices. While the paradox of the concomitant rise of unemployment and literacy has generated disillusionment among literate but unemployed youth, the pinch of rising prices is felt by all, but more by the poor.

The ruling party is likely to counter the BJP allegations by highlighting its achievements. According to recent surveys, in a country-wide rating, the state has been ranked as the number one in elementary education and very high in health-care, infrastructure development and good governance. The ruling party will also highlight the unprecedented spread of secondary and higher education institutions in the state, the issue of their poor quality notwithstanding.

Three state-specific issues are also likely to figure prominently in the BJP campaign. The first relates to an audio recording of Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh and his MP wife, Pratibha Singh8217;s conversation with some industrialists/ businessmen. Of course, since the cassette is fairly old it may not have the same impact that it could have had earlier. Similarly, allegations of the discriminatory attitude of the present government towards the Kangra district in particular and the new/lower areas of the state in general, do not have the same appeal today as they had, say, 20 years ago.

Another matter that is likely to be used by the BJP is the allegedly vulgar dance at the birthday party of one of the Congress ministers, who resigned in the wake of its telecast by a TV channel. Although a judicial probe gave him a clean chit, yet in a state like Himachal, perceived to be the land of gods and goddesses, the issue may still be open to political use.

Notwithstanding the issues, the final outcome of elections will depend on the structure of the contest. There is evidence to suggest that a direct Congress-BJP clash benefits the former. When a third party, even if it is minor, enters the fray, the electoral outcome becomes not only uncertain but clearly detrimental to the Congress.

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Himachal Vikas Congress, floated by Pandit Sukh Ram entered the electoral battle in 1998, and although it won only four seats in a House of 68 it was enough to oust the ruling party from power. Likewise, during the 1990 assembly elections, the JD led by Thakur Ram Lall was in the fray as the third force, and the combined strength of the BJP 43 seats and the JD 11 seats reduced the Congress tally to just 8. In contrast, when there was a direct contest in 1985 the Congress won hands down getting 55 seats, reducing the BJP tally to 7. It was a repeat performance by the Congress in the 1993 elections where again, in a direct contest, it won 53 seats and the BJP had to be content with only 7. Again in 2003, the Congress bagged 46 seats, while the BJP got just 16.

Given this scenario, the possibility of a triangular contest in the forthcoming elections where the BSP under the leadership of Vijay Singh Mankotia, a former Congress minister, is all set to enter the fray, needs to be watched. Assuming that its vote bank will comprise largely of the dalits, it will cut more into Congress votes than those of the BJP.

A couple of other factors need to be considered to assess the impact of the BSP8217;s entry. One, the political clout of Mankotia, who is leading the BSP charge, is not comparable to that of Thakur Ram Lall or to that of Pandit Sukh Ram. Two, both of them belonged to regions of the state that are traditional Congress strongholds: Shimla and Mandi respectively. In contrast, Mankotia8217;s home ground is Kangra where the BJP has strong roots. Thus, if the BSP makes its presence felt mainly in Kangra, it may affect the Congress tally marginally.

There is another dimension to the Mankotia factor. Three districts of the state 8212; Kangra, Hamirpur and Bilaspur 8212; have a high concentration of ex-servicemen and Mankotia has been the president of the H.P. Ex-Services League since 1983. In addition he has been chairman of the Vishal Himachal Mazdoor Sangh. The extent to which he is able to corner the votes of ex-servicemen and industrial workers will be a loss to both the Congress and BJP.

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There is still time for either of the two parties to rope in Mankotia8217;s outfit through some trade off. That would neutralise the challenge posed by the BSP. This is, of course, not easy because Mayawati is determined to extend her catchment area, as a long-term strategy. One has to wait till the final battle-lines are drawn.

The writer retired as professor of political science, Panjab University. Till recently, he was fellow at the Indian Institute of Advanced Study, Shimla