The real report card

As far as Penukonda in Andhra Pradesh is concerned, it is a matter of praying that there won8217;t be too many deaths. The sitting MLA, Paritala Ravi, was killed. Seven more died two weeks ago when the Telugu Desam candidate, P. Sunitha, the late MLA8217;s wife, went to file her nomination. Will the voters choose to send a message about the 8216;8216;gun culture8217;8217; engulfing Andhra Pradesh? Even if they do, there is only a remote chance of an impact in the Assembly on the Congress ministry.

The by-polls could, however, have an immediate jolt in Kerala, Karnataka, and Goa. Congress-led coalitions reign in the first two; Goa is under President8217;s Rule, and the results of the by-elections are bound to have a fallout on the fluid politics of the state.

Moving from north to south, let me begin with Goa. There are five seats up for grabs in Goa today 8212; Taleigao, Cambarjua, Benaulim, Margao, and Poinguinim. Since there are only 40 seats in the Assembly these five constituencies could decide whether the state is governed by the Congress or by the BJP. Although, given that Goan politicians have raised floor crossing to the level of a fine art, they are no guarantees of stable government.

Goa was the dress rehearsal for opening night in Jharkhand and Bihar. The contrived defections and Raj Bhawan8217;s blatant partisanship left an embarrassed Union cabinet with no choice but President8217;s Rule. The current set of elections is the first chance for Goans to voice their opinion on the antics of their political representatives.

Their neighbours in Karnataka have just two by-polls to endure, a seat each in Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha. Former Congress chief ministers held both. S. M. Krishna left Chamarajapet after the Congress High Command exiled him to the Mumbai Raj Bhawan. S. Bangarappa vacated the Shimoga Lok Sabha constituency when he moved from the BJP to the Samajwadi Party. Bangarappa8217;s gyrations across the political arena could make Goan politicians seem rank amateurs in the defection game!

Technically, a Congress-Janata Dal Secular coalition rules in Bangalore; it is a facade that is increasingly difficult to maintain. The two parties came together in a post-poll alliance to stop the BJP the single largest party in the Assembly. Other than that, there is nothing that prevents the two 8216;8216;partners8217;8217; from butting heads 8212; which is precisely what they are doing both in Chamarajapet and in Shimoga. What has changed since the 2004 elections? Well, the Congress, the Janata Dal Secular, and the BJP are still yelling away, but the Samajwadi Party threatens to make its mark courtesy Bangarappa.

The Janata Dal Secular doesn8217;t have much of a chance in either constituency. However it is in H.D. Deve Gowda8217;s power to trip the Congress. Which in turn gives him more options 8212; demanding the chief minister8217;s chair for his son, possibly snap polls later in the year. The stakes are no less high for the Congress, both because it wants to put its prickly 8216;8216;ally8217;8217; in its place and because it is scared that the by-election would be interpreted as a referendum of sorts on its one-year record of government.

The Congress chief minister of Kerala would love to be in Dharam Singh8217;s shoes, which tells you everything you need to know about the state of the party in Kerala. Azhikode and Kuthuparamba, where by-elections are being held today, elected Left Democratic Front nominees in the teeth of a United Democratic Front wave in 2001. Given the Marxist recovery seen in the Lok Sabha elections, the only question is the quantum of defeat for the Congress. Of course, the CPIM will have something to chew over should its own margin be reduced.

The factor giving all politicians sleepless nights is the result from the one southern state not mentioned so for, namely Tamil Nadu. The Kancheepuram and Gummidipoondi Assembly by-elections saw a gigantic swing in votes away from the DMK and

its Congress partner. The AIADMK and its BJP ally lost every seat they contested from Tamil Nadu in the general election last year; if she hasn8217;t quite wrested back the initiative, Jayalalithaa has certainly stemmed the rot. Part of the credit must go to her success in providing an efficient administration.

Can the UPA claim as much? There has been no dearth of 8216;8216;report cards8217;8217; since the prime minister ventured a return to his habits as a teacher. These by-elections 8212; and don8217;t forget that they aren8217;t confined to South India 8212; are a chance for the real examiners to grade the government, and they are the voters of India.