The 145;non146; sayer

While as a youth he briefly sold the Communist daily L8217;Humanite, he then joined right wing politics. He defended state control in the seventies before championing a Reagan-like market economy in the eighties. He was a euro-sceptic, then a euro-enthusiast. He resumed nuclear tests in the Pacific, and then became a staunch environmentalist. More than anything, he leaves office with a long list of unfulfilled promises.

He did carry out some mild health, tax and pension reforms. His acknowledgment of the French state8217;s guilt in the Nazi extermination of the Jews in World War II was historic. He was relentless in his opposition to extremism of all kinds and in his focus on international affairs. But France is not better off than when he took office in 1995; the social fracture between the haves and have-nots has not been healed, unemployment remains high, wages have been stagnant, and economic growth is weak.

He will probably be best remembered by historians as a European leader who led the opposition of the American-led war in Iraq in 2003 with a staunch 8220;Non8221;. But despite all his efforts, France8217;s influence in the world has waned. It is another 8220;Non8221; that also marked his second term when the French people rejected the European Union8217;s proposed constitution in a referendum, thereby contributing to a halt in greater European integration. In his Sunday8217;s address, President Chirac urged France to believe in itself. The country still needs reforms. Chirac himself failed to introduce them.

So less than six weeks before his successor is to be elected, a fundamental question arises: Who out of all the candidates will be able to carry out those fundamental transformations? The answer is far from being clear.

Centre-right candidate Nicholas Sarkozy promises change despite being part of the very government he vows to break from. He favours both pro-market reforms and a strong protective state. He portrays himself as the guardian of republican values while proposing to create a ministry for immigration and national identity, viewed as far-right rhetoric. Socialist candidate Seacute;golegrave;ne Royal built her campaign around the image of a youthful feminine leader listening to the aspirations of the French people, rather than imposing views from the top. Many electors therefore fear that she would lack the clear vision needed to take the country ahead. Her programme, summed up in 8216;one hundred proposals for France8217;, is a mixed bag of more conservative proposals such as military boot-camps for juvenile delinquents and increased government spending for social programmes, minimum wages and small pensions increase. Though seen at times as the proponent of a Scandinavian-style social-democracy and able to provoke drastic reactions from the sheer fact of being the first woman president, many doubt she would have the capability for a new momentum.

In fact, more than 60 per cent of the French actually do not trust either the right or the left, and almost half of them have yet to choose their candidate. It is not surprising, in that context, to witness the sharp rise in the last weeks of a third contender, centrist Franccedil;ois Bayrou.

According to the latest polls, Sarkozy leads over Royal by two or three points while she is now barely ahead of Bayrou. Even more impressive, in the likely case of a runoff, Bayrou may beat both right-wing and socialist candidates. As a farmer8217;s son who wears denim jackets and raises horses, and who never graduated from the French political elite schools, Franccedil;ois Bayrou is seen as an outsider, far from the 8220;Paris-media establishment8221;. He promises to transcend the ideological cleavages of left and right. His platform 8212; reducing debt, altering the pension system, helping small businesses 8212; is a mixture of economic reform, European convictions and traditional views on agriculture and education.

Since Franccedil;ois Mitterrand8217;s de facto abandonment of socialism in 1983, France has been governed by consensual, muddle-through governments with alternate left-right labels. Transcending ideology is therefore hardly the problem. Rather, Bayrou8217;s popularity may be the sign of a typical French trait in elections: Voting as a protest against everything, rather than voting for something. It was the case for instance in 2005 during the EU constitution referendum.

This brings us to another question: Are the French ready to take their responsibilities and accept the hardship that comes with the change they demand? For more than two decades, the French electorate has pleaded for change and then opposed most of it. It has punished successive governments for not carrying out enough reforms and then marched into the streets the moment the government would try even some limited change. The country is at a crossroads, asking how it can adapt to a fast changing world and create new jobs while keeping its generous safety nets and social welfare system. It is not obvious that either presidential candidate has the answer, nor that its citizens would be ready to hear the answer.

The writer is a French journalist