Sonia146;s 145;K146; headache

Did you realise that one of every nine Lok Sabha members is elected from the Deep South? And these 60 seats 8212; 20 in Kerala, 39 in Tamil...

Did you realise that one of every nine Lok Sabha members is elected from the Deep South? And these 60 seats 8212; 20 in Kerala, 39 in Tamil Nadu, a single constituency in Pondicherry 8212; could prove to be crucial to Sonia Gandhi Pvt. Ltd. in an era when the Congress must don beggar8217;s rags in the Gangetic belt. This leaves the president of India8217;s oldest party at the mercy of two crotchety old politicians 8212; M. Karunanidhi and K. Karunakaran. These two 8212; let us call them the 8216;8216;K Factor8217;8217; 8212; will be crucial for the Congress in the coming polls.

Before going on, let us see why Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Pondicherry are so crucial to the Congress. In the last general election, the three virtually saved the party from the humiliation of drifting into a double-digit total. Of the 114 seats it won in 1999, eleven came courtesy the Deep South. Several more were won by the Congress8217;s electoral allies, but some of those friends 8212; notably Jayalalithaa 8212; have turned into foes. And it is now an open question whether the Congress can retain what it won last time, which is where the K Factor duo come back into the limelight.

Both men are, technically, allied with Sonia Gandhi. Both have affirmed that they stand firm against any truck with the National Democratic Alliance in general and the BJP specifically. Both have piously promised to back the lady8217;s bid should she throw her hat in the ring. All this is reassuring, but it leaves one all-important question unanswered: are they willing to back the candidates chosen by Sonia Gandhi?

Let us begin with Kerala. Here, K. Muraleedharan, son of Karunakaran and president of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee, is a proponent of a broad anti-BJP front. There is nothing wrong with that, but it is the precise definition of 8216;8216;broad8217;8217; which is giving the Sonia Gandhi camp the jitters. Muraleedharan, who is patently speaking for his father, is recommending a tie-up with the CPIM. He is pointing out, with unimpeachable logic, that it makes no sense to ally with the Marxists in Kanyakumari but squabble bitterly in Thiruvananthapuram just across the border.

The Karunakaran clan has both logic and ethics on its side of the argument. Everybody knows perfectly well that the Marxists and the Congress must be allies in Delhi if there is to be any realistic hope of unseating the BJP. It would be far more honest if both parties admitted this openly to the electorate of Kerala. Finally, it makes sense from the point of view of electoral arithmetic; the two largest parties will definitely sweep the state if they join hands.

So why is Sonia Gandhi objecting to the plan? Probably because she realises that it is a ploy to decrease the number of her supporters in the next Lok Sabha! Let us examine the Karunakaran proposal in detail. Logic suggests that Kerala8217;s 20 seats should be split and shared alike between the Left Democratic Front and the United Democratic Front. But the Congress would then have to give some of its 10 constituencies to the smaller partners in the United Democratic Front notably the Muslim League and the Kerala Congress. And how many of the tickets left do you think would go to Karunakaran loyalists and how many to the Antony read Sonia Gandhi camp? In 1999, the Congress won eight seats from Kerala; should the Karunakaran proposal be accepted, how many could 10, Janpath count on tomorrow?

Let us cross the border, and enter Tamil Nadu. Karunanidhi was an honoured member in the NDA until scant weeks ago. He still praises Atal Bihari Vajpayee lavishly whereas his remarks on Sonia Gandhi are lukewarm, almost cursory. The DMK, he says, is willing to consider a tie-up with the Congress. But the devil is in the details.

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Karunanidhi is not willing to give the Congress the seats it wants. He refuses to cede even the solitary seat in Pondicherry won by M.O.H. Farook for the Congress in 1999. Even if there is an alliance 8212; a word Karunanidhi does not use, preferring to speak of mere 8216;8216;seat sharing8217;8217; 8212; the Congress must cool its heels outside his house until he finishes talking to his 8216;8216;allies8217;8217;, namely the MDMK, the PMK, and a few others. To Congressmen, this must seem wearily reminiscent of Jayalalithaa in 1999 8212; and we all know how that 8216;8216;alliance8217;8217; turned out!

Karunanidhi has reasons enough to give the Congress the cold shoulder. His first ministry was felled in 1976 for his vocal opposition to the Emergency. His second was dismissed by Chandrashekhar in 1991 at Rajiv Gandhi8217;s instigation. The Gujral ministry was pulled down in 1997 because of the presence of DMK ministers in the Union Cabinet.

Karunanidhi named his son after a famous Russian dictator. Sonia Gandhi would do well to recall what Stalin said in 1939 when the Germans wanted a preamble stressing 8216;8216;friendly Soviet-German relations8217;8217; in the infamous pact which assured Hitler of Russian neutrality in the opening moves of World War II. 8216;8216;The Soviet government,8217;8217; Stalin said, 8216;8216;could not suddenly present to the public assurances of friendship after they had been covered with pails of manure by the Nazi government for six years!8217;8217;

There is little enough for the BJP to gain or lose in the Deep South. I expect to see a Bharatanatyam performance on the moon before one of its candidates is launched to the Lok Sabha from 8216;8216;God8217;s own country8217;8217;! Win or lose, the K Factor is entirely Sonia Gandhi8217;s headache.