Slogans won8217;t do

The Bharatiya Janata Party8217;s election manifesto flirts with the possibility of major changes in the nuclear policy India has followed for the last half century if it comes to power. Its intentions cannot be placed higher than a flirtation because the words are quite ambiguous. It promises at one and the same time to quot;re-evaluatequot; nuclear policy and to quot;exercisequot; the option to induct nuclear weapons. Taken at face value this means the BJP has made up its mind to make the bomb but will examine the reasons for it and the consequences of it anyway. Obviously, the BJP8217;s strategic policy think-tank knows better than to put the cart before the horse. What the manifesto reveals, therefore, is not a policy but a battle-scarred compromise between realists and hawks in the party. It was the realists who prevailed in 1996 when, in the midst of setting out his government8217;s policies, the then prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, told Parliament only that India8217;s nuclear policy would be reviewed.

It is, therefore, safeto say the BJP takes its responsibilities seriously. If it forms the next government at the Centre it will examine all aspects of the nuclear question before coming to a decision. That is as it should be. Nuclear policy has not been and is not a partisan issue. It demands, as in the past, consultation between the government of the day and opposition parties. It also calls for informed debate in the country. In their manifestos, both the Congress and the UF reaffirm their commitment to maintaining India8217;s nuclear option and to the pursuit of universal disarmament. All governments since Pandit Nehru set up these twin pillars have relied on them. There are two thrusts behind the BJP8217;s promise to review and possibly alter the architecture. The first going back to Jan Sangh days and arising out of the BJP8217;s ideological postures is bound to obfuscate rather than illuminate the issue. The second grows out of real-life questions posed by developments in the last five years and especially China8217;s nuclear posture,Pakistan8217;s acquisition of nuclear and missile technology and Washington8217;s determined efforts to cap India8217;s capabilities.

No matter which party comes to power, a comprehensive review of the security scenario and integrated policies on the economic, foreign relations and defence fronts will be essential in the light of changes in the global environment. Then there is the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. India rejected it as discriminatory and because it does not push the nuclear powers towards disarmament hard enough but it remains a live issue. At home New Delhi8217;s stance on the CTBT has raised the expectations of and pressure from the pro-bomb lobby even as Washington still hopes to change India8217;s mind. A fissile material cut-off treaty is on the agenda of the disarmament conference in Geneva and though a draft is still a long way off, Indian policy-makers will have to take a position sooner rather than later. Agni is tossed about like a political football. To pose nuclear and missile issues in simplisticterms as matters of national pride and prestige will not help to secure India8217;s long-term interests.