Shadow over Musharraf

The first assassination bid this month on President Pervez Musharraf personalised the narrative around the general. On December 14, when a j...

The first assassination bid this month on President Pervez Musharraf personalised the narrative around the general. On December 14, when a jamming device delayed the blast at a Rawalpindi bridge by a few crucial seconds till his motorcade has passed by, sighs of relief echoed with a series of what-ifs. What if the general had not survived? What if hardliners had then seized power? What if it had paved the way for Islamists bent upon reversing recent progress in the Indo-Pak peace initiative as well as support, however selective, to action against the Al-Qaeda and other terror networks? These worst case scenarios appeared to profile Musharraf as the last bulwark against a jehadi takeover. Now, as the general survives another attempt on his life, it8217;s occasion to take a wider view of the challenges facing not just Pakistan, but South Asia.

Two near-misses in 12 days on the life of a man as meticulously and strongly guarded as the Pakistan president raises very serious questions. Very few are privy to Musharraf8217;s programmes and routes. The fact that twice terrorists have brushed his cavalcade invites suspicion that some persons in Pakistan8217;s security establishment could be involved. Musharraf himself has once again preferred to blame Islamic extremists. Al-Qaeda8217;s second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has already accused Musharraf of 8216;8216;betraying Islam8217;8217; 8212; presumably an allusion to his assistance to American military action against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Indigenous terrorist groups are also reported to be smarting after the general recently said that they posed the greatest threat to Pakistan8217;s security.

Pakistan in general and Musharraf in particular stand at a significant juncture today. As mentioned, there is a crackdown on certain terrorist groups. Musharraf is also in the midst of negotiating a deal with the political class whereby he remains head of state till 2007, while ceasing to be army chief by end 2004. In addition, he set the cat among the pigeons a few days ago by hinting that Pakistan could set aside its insistence on the UN resolutions in any dialogue with India. That comment was virtually rescinded by his prime minister, but he nevertheless is domestically perceived to be serious about normalising relations with India. With Prime Minister Vajpayee scheduled to attend the Saarc summit in Islamabad in the first week of January, the air is rife with attendant speculation about bilateral exchanges on the sidelines. The twin attacks on Musharraf8217;s cavalcade may not jeopardise movement on all these tracks, but they could influence the priority and momentum now imparted to each of them.