Riding the waves

It is not terrorism alone that makes the Indian Ocean Region combustible. The Persian Gulf holds the key to global economic stability, with over two-thirds of the world8217;s reserves of oil and one-third of its gas reserves. The Asia-Pacific region in our neighborhood is becoming a major consumer of the world8217;s oil resources, with China having become a growing importer of oil and natural gas. By 2020, the oil consumption of this region will reach 38 million barrels per day, with 80 per cent of the oil coming from the Persian Gulf through the Indian Ocean. While India now imports around 80 million tones of oil annually, the annual demand for imported oil will grow to an estimated 150 million tones in 2020. Around 50 oil tankers traverse across our shores daily. By 2020, the number of tankers traversing this path daily will be between 150 and 200. India sits astride two 8220;choke points8221; for global oil supplies 8212; the Straits of Hormuz on its West and the Straits of Malacca to its east. In geopolitical terms, we are located at the crossroads of the flow of global oil supplies and the movement of jihadi terrorism from Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Asia-Pacific region.

India has no history of foreign conquest or territorial expansionism. Therefore, with the exception of Pakistan and China, many countries 8212; view India as a partner for economic progress and regional security. They welcome an economically resurgent India playing a cooperative role in promoting bilateral and regional economic integration and meeting the challenges posed to security and stability across the Indian Ocean Region.

Given the crucial importance of oil supplies for global prosperity and the volatility of the politics of the Indian Ocean Region, it is inevitable that extra-regional powers will enhance their military presence near our shores. Shortly after China became a net importer of oil in 1993, Zhao Nanqi, the director of the general staff logistics department in the Chinese navy, proclaimed: 8220;We can no longer accept the Indian Ocean as an ocean only of the Indians.8221; Japan has also recently shown an inclination to raise its military profile in the region. General Musharraf stated in May 2001 that Pakistan would make the Gwadar port, presently being built with Chinese assistance, available to vessels of the Chinese navy whenever he felt threatened. This Sino-Pakistan nexus extends to nuclear and missile proliferation, in partnership with the Pyongyang regime. Chinese interest in naval facilities in Myanmar is widely acknowledged. Further, as Israel feels increasingly insecure in the face of Pakistani-led nuclear proliferation into its neighborhood, it is only a question of time before it would deploy nuclear submarines in the Indian Ocean. Regional powers like Pakistan, the Arab Gulf States and Singapore welcome extra-regional naval presences from the US and others like France, primarily because of their own regional security concerns. We have welcomed Russian interest in projecting its naval power in the Indian Ocean and held naval exercises with the Russians near our shores recently.

In these circumstances, it was heartening that the issue of NATO involvement in the 5537-strong International Stabilization Force Afghanistan ISAF in Afghanistan was raised in our Parliament. NATO has announced that it will work within the UN mandate from August 11, 2003, and stated that its presence in Afghanistan is a 8220;lasting commitment8221;. Russia has agreed to cooperate with, but not participate in, ISAF. More interesting is the Chinese reaction to NATO8217;s role. On November 23, 2002, Chinese Foreign Minister Tan Jiaxuan proclaimed: 8220;Our contacts with NATO have become more businesslike and are improving our relations. China has sought a strategic dialogue with NATO.8221; Thus, while both Russia and China may not have welcomed the NATO presence on their strategic frontiers, they are seeking to engage with it, rather than confront or criticise it. It is only in India that some of our politicians appear to believe that the Cold War is not over and don8217;t bother to understand the realities of the contemporary world.

Terrorism, missile and nuclear proliferation and energy security are going to be the issues that dominate the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean Region in the coming years. India is located on the sea-lanes of energy flows from the Persian Gulf and faces the challenges of terrorism flowing from its western to its eastern shores. We cannot face these challenges by resorting to old cliches like 8220;Nonaligned unity8221;. Is it not time for us to at least have a comprehensive doctrine for promoting, peace, security and cooperation in our Indian Ocean neighborhood? We will find ourselves excluded, or marginalised, in this vital and volatile neighborhood, if we lack a clear strategic vision to deal with the challenges ahead.