Persian summers

Why do Iranians tolerate such crude crackdowns? Come summer, and the hot air crackles with rumours of action on infringements of the dress code, especially for women. This time, by all indications, the crackdown has a new axis of intimidation. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad8217;s government, in a reportedly surprise tolerance of minor deviations from the dress and social codes, is using the pretext of American collaboration to put activists and intellectuals on edge. And as Iran is also proceeding unimpeded on its nuclear programme, this has predictably intensified debate on how the West should weigh in.

Iran is a classic case of the dictatorial excesses allowed in an oil economy. Tehran is able to withstand the threat of economic sanctions because, with current oil prices, it stands to gain revenues in excess of 70 billion from petroleum. This assurance of oil revenue not only allows the government to tide over international isolation, it also makes it less dependent on its own people for revenue in the form of tax collections. Human rights scholars underline the direct correlation between taxation and a citizenry keenly confident of asserting its rights. In this sense, the failure of global multilateral organisations to influence affairs puts Iran in the same category as countries like Venezuela. But gung-ho isolationism takes its toll. Oil revenue, even in the most well-endowed state, can only cover so much expenditure, and sanctions are having an effect through failure to upgrade the industry. Already, the Ahmadinejad regime is bracing itself for discontent on account of a proposal to ration petroleum, which is greatly subsidised for local consumers.

But Iran is also different. Its people have shown themselves to be particularly averse to uprisings encouraged from overseas. They are averse to invitations to anarchy. The threat of military intervention only invites popular consolidation around the government. And offers of, say, American financial assistance to pro-democracy movements have been politely but sternly refused. In essence, Iranians8217; dissent against their government does not translate into support to their government8217;s critics in the West. It is this paradox the West must learn to deal with.