Options running out for Vajpayee

NEW DELHI, April 1: Options are running out for the Vajpayee Government even as it staved off an immediate showdown with Jayalalitha. Alt...

NEW DELHI, April 1: Options are running out for the Vajpayee Government even as it staved off an immediate showdown with Jayalalitha. Although it tried to retrieve lost ground today by softening the blow of yesterday8217;s outbursts against her, political circles feel there is little scope left for a lasting patchup between the BJP and its temperamental ally.

Vajpayee8217;s belated attempt to distance himself from Power Minister R. Kumaramangalam8217;s tirade is sure to be interpreted as a sign of his desperation to save his Government. And Jayalalitha can be expected to drive home her advantage by upping her demands to include Kumaramangalam8217;s dismissal from the Union Cabinet.

There is a point beyond which Vajpayee will find it difficult to continue placating the AIADMK supremo. The mood in the ruling alliance is turning quite ugly and during Tuesday evening8217;s meeting at Vajpayee8217;s residence, most of the BJP8217;s partners felt that Jayalalitha8217;s bluff should be called.

Yesterday8217;s anti-Jaya statements byKumaramangalam and Mamata Banerjee were part of a coordinated strategy to corner the AIADMK leader and force her to reveal her hand. The ruling alliance expected her to back off in the absence of a clear commitment from the Congress to form an alternative government.

The strategy seems to have boomeranged and today, it was the BJP which backed down after Jaya threatened to withdraw support unless the Prime Minister disassociated himself from Kumaramangalam8217;s statements.

The BJP and Vajpayee are putting up a brave face by repeatedly claiming that the Government will survive with or without Jayalalitha. The claims are based on dreams of breaking AIADMK, Samajwadi Party and other MPs scared of a mid-term poll. The 8220;Vajpayee or elections8221; threat is part of the party8217;s terror tactics to get vulnerable MPs to cross over.

The Government is playing up the 29-vote margin of victory it scored on the Bihar vote in the Lok Sabha to trumpet its numbers. However, this may prove to be a pipe-dream. The 29 votesincluded 6 six the BSP which made it clear during the debate that it would vote with the BJP only on the Bihar issue because the Laloo Yadav Government was 8220;anti-Dalit8221;.

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The margin was higher also because five Congress MPs were absent that day with prior permission from Chief Sonia Gandhi. Once Jayalalitha pulls out with her 18 MPs, therefore, it will be touch-and-go for the Vajpayee Government even if the DMK jumps in with its 6 MPs.

The Congress is confident that the entire edifice will come crashing down the day one of the alliance partners withdraws support. And it is watching the battle between the AIADMK and the BJP with rising anticipation.

It is still not clear if and when Jaya will pull the plug but BJP strategists in their saner moments admit that the day is not far off. She has cornered the Government on the Bhagwat issue by joining the Congress in demanding a JPC probe into the allegations levelled by the sacked Naval Chief.

Vajpayee may give in just to survive but the BJP realises thatJaya will follow it up with a demand to shift George Fernandes from the Defence Ministry. One concession could thus put the Government on a roller coaster to doom.

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Till Chennai served its ultimatum today, the feeling in the BJP was it would be better to sacrifice the Government by taking a principled stand against an increasingly demanding ally. But today8217;s flip-flop suggests a change of heart.

The meeting of the party8217;s National Executive, which begins tomorrow in Panaji, will take a final view on how far the Government should go to satisfy Jayalalitha.