Oil and Turmoil

It is with relief then that one turns to John Keay, reputed writer on British India, to guide us through this maze. Most commentators, specialist or amateur, are prone to describe the Middle East in terms of a civilisational clash, or they place blame on one party or the other for the prevailing chaos. Noam Chomsky blames the US for everything, Fouad Ajami the Arabs. Keay stays away from this blame game, and instead gives us a dispassionate and detached historical account of the events and the people from the time of the British occupation of Egypt and the overthrow of the Iraqi monarchy in 1958.

After the Crusades, the region was left alone by western powers, and came into focus only during the Napoleonic wars. The region was dominated by the British and the French until the 1950s, when the Cold War and the Israel factor shifted the balance of influence in favour of the US. This domination was direct and indirect. Sometimes, local players fronted for the imperial powers, or as in Palestine, they ruled directly. But the key was always in the hands of the West.

After the First World War, the remnants of the Turkish empire were carved into new states, such as Jordan, Syria and Iraq. While the European overlords were paternalistic in their attitude and naive in their understanding, the calibre of the local leadership was abysmal. Even the few who managed to rise above the rest, such as Nasser, displayed autocratic and volatile behaviour which simply did not lend any credence to attempts at economic development and political stability.

And amidst this turmoil was the presence of oil. The needs of the internal combustion engine and societies powered by it made oil the lubricant of governance and power. All strategies were geared to it. For instance, when the Iraqi government showed pro-Nazi tendencies, it was quickly bundled out. British companies were replaced by US corporates after World War II. So, when Mossadegh in Iran turned out the Shah and nationalised oil, the CIA brought him down. The lesson was clear 8212; it doesn8217;t pay to buck big business.

Keay uses the metaphor of a clock to describe Middle East history. The clock moves forward, events appear to be taking a positive turn. Then, suddenly, the clock stops. An unforeseen and cataclysmic event erupts, and once again, chaos reigns. A circular vision of history, which leaves little room for any movement forward. And the hopes of the people fade, and radical Islam takes stage front.

So, what is Keay8217;s reading of the tea leaves for the future? The vision that Keay offers is disquietingly bleak. He concludes his book with these eloquent but grim words: 8220;Among those less engaged, the twenty-first century dawned with a flush of real hope. Then out of clear American skies airliners descended as missiles. Again the clock stopped. Again we remembered where we were. But from this massacre of innocents no lesson of redress was drawn, only a license for aggression. Hope itself was hijacked, then ground to zero.8221;