No ordinary deal

The nuclear deal seeks to give India a level playing field and it is unimaginable why politics should intrude into what is clearly a matter of technology, costs and national security

The negotiations with the IAEA and the NSG8217;s endorsements are about to be finalised, and the deal will come up before the nation by July. Some in the press have written that the deal will not produce cheap electricity and hence it has no utility. But what is at stake is not cheap electricity but international barriers to 21st century technological growth, access to world class civilian nuclear and space technology, and the removal of barriers to the purchase of the best equipment for our defence forces, set up after our ill-timed 1974 nuclear explosion. It is a good deal on all counts 8212; as promised by the PM, but opposed by the BJP which made an un-coordinated, ill-prepared, abortive attempt with the 8216;Next Steps8217; Agreement in 2002 to achieve the same result.

In the grand stand of world politics, the chances of India8217;s tortoise like victory against China are fancied by all 8212; except the Chinese and the Indian communists. Many may imagine that Chinese prosperity is based on selling millions of plastic Hanumans to India and rubber sandals and bath brushes to Wal Mart. Not so. China8217;s huge trade surplus comes from manufacturing based on technology purchases unfettered by the 123 clause, utilised to manufacture computers, electronic goods, medical and diagnostic equipment and aerospace parts. In 2001, China imported and paid for 227 hi-tech and dual use licenses which jumped to 7,800 in 2007, while India8217;s slumped from 574 in 2001 to 356 in the same period. Not surprisingly China8217;s high-technology industrial output went from 250 billion Yuan in 1999 to 1750 billion Yuan in 2005. Without the 123, agreement and the Hyde Act, no high-tech dual use licenses can come to India without the approval of the US Department of Commerce or the State Department, and no US company gets into this hassle unless the order is worth billions of dollars. China was never hampered by the sanctions imposed on a non-NPT power. The US now wishes to broker India8217;s release from those constraints. The Indian communists would rather that India remain crippled.

Many Indians who sit on the fence on the nuclear deal feel that the communists are merely being unwise and not collaborative of China8217;s attempt to outstrip India. But consider these facts. China8217;s nuclear deal with Pakistan was signed the year Rajiv Gandhi went to shake Deng Hsiao Ping8217;s hand in Beijing. China8217;s thermo-nuclear test was conducted during President Venkataraman8217;s visit to Beijing, and Pakistan8217;s only missile factory was shipped to Fatehjang, west of Rawalpindi during Jiang Zemin8217;s visit to Delhi. While India was extracting China8217;s acknowledgement of sovereignty over Sikkim, George Tenet the head of the CIA was testifying to the US Congress about China breaking presidential assurances given to Clinton about not arming Pakistan. Pakistan8217;s Chinese origin two stage missile to target South India was fired the month the UPA came to power in Delhi, and its Chinese assisted long range 8212; nuclear capable cruise missile was tested in 2005, the year Wen Jiabao visited India. Many analysts have encouraged India to take a tougher stand with Beijing, but with a looming, powerful neighbour sitting in Tibet, threatening Arunachal, able to veto India8217;s entry into the security council, working to block India in ASEAN the ARF and other international bodies, able to finance every opposition outside India and outbid India for every nearby oil and gas field, the Indian foreign office has no such luxury, but to abide its time, gather strength, acquire technology and make friends in powerful places 8212; all of which are being thwarted by the left.

It is true that today China is outstripping India in economic growth, albeit without political corrections. But by 2025, when and if India8217;s youth bulge is gainfully employed, Indian growth rates are expected to catch up and surpass the dragon. Indians with their notions of Eastern values, democracy and inclusive growth are genuinely prepared to consider the 21st century as the common Asian century. But look at the Chinese supplied missile sites around Sargodha, that target Delhi, or the huge underground ballistic missile complexes of China8217;s 414 missile brigade at Delingha in the Tibetan Autonomous Region, and one can see that the goodwill that the Indians show their Asian neighbours are only looked upon with cynical amusement in Beijing. The BJP knows all this only too well. They have been in government, have had access to classified analyses and pioneered the country8217;s overt nuclear capability. But their cynicism has been in view too, that when they were briefed by the government on how India8217;s strategic capability was being built up, and not compromised by the nuclear deal, they have responded with lengthy newspaper articles on how cheaper electricity could be made from coal, and by joining hands with the communists to oppose a deal which is clearly in the national interest.

The technology denial consequences of the deal not going through are even more serious. Since the Americans strengthened their Atomic Energy Act in 1978 with the NNPA, they followed up with the Export Administration Act in 1979, which was re-validated in 2004. As a result no American company has replied to an Indian hi-tech tender for 29 years. The consequences have been calamitous. Clever Indian scientists have often used Russian alternates or acquired European equivalents, at unreasonable cost. In 1992 in the high-tech electronic warfare field, European and Indian PSUs quoted Rs 23 crore for an EW set for the Navy. At the time the most advanced set in India was an American one imported in the German HDW submarine with an obviously fiddled End-User certificate. That set was acquired for Rs 10 crore. Fortunately, the Israelis entered the market at Rs 11 crore and saved the day. The absence of American competition in the high technology arena will cripple our rate of advance. The Deal seeks to give India a level playing field and it is unimaginable why politics should intrude into what is clearly a matter of technology, costs and national security.

The writer is a retired rear admiral rajamenonvsnl.com