Mayawati146;s win-win gambit

On her part, Mayawati toned down her attack on the BJP. Having signalled that she was ready for a tie-up with secular parties, she suddenly called a press conference in Delhi and ruled out any alliance with the Congress. But the concluding chapter in this story has not yet been written.

Mayawati enjoys a unique position in Indian politics today. No other politician wields the kind of power she does, no other politician has the power to transfer votes to others. Such is the fierce loyalty that she commands amongst dalits in Uttar Pradesh that if she were to ask them to vote for Mulayam Singh Yadav tomorrow, they would probably comply.

The more intense Mulayam8217;s machinations to split her party and the sharper the attack on her by her detractors, the greater will be the consolidation of the dalit vote behind her. Dalits, in effect, view the attack on her as an attack on themselves. A day after she resigned in Lucknow, a couple of senior IAS officers in Bhopal joined the BSP.

Neither Prakash Ambedkar nor Ram Vilas Paswan, who at one time was being projected as a future prime minister, could become a symbol of dalit power in the way she has. Even Kanshi Ram, who 25 years ago coined the slogan, 8216;8216;vote humara, raj tumhara, nahin chalega, nahin chalega,8217;8217; and built up the Bahujan Samaj Party, could not attain this position.

This has less to do with her, more to do with the rise of dalit consciousness over a long period though her rule hastened and sharpened the process. A beneficiary of a confluence of events which catapulted her to power, she has come to represent the sociopolitical awakening amongst the dalits. In the words of a political wag, 8220;Woh ab collar kharha kar ke aur button khol kar chalte hain.8221; Mayawati or no Mayawati, you cannot send them back into submission.

The middle classes may hate her. She has used transfers and postings to terrorise the bureaucracy. She has used her stints in office to further her politics, to cock a snook at the niceties and conventions of democracy. People cannot forget her birthday cake and the diamonds she adorned for the bash. But it is precisely all these things which make her the darling of the dalits, and she knows it. They view her strong-arm methods and her display of power and wealth as a sign of her 8212; and them 8212; having made it. They view her resignation from the Harora seat recently as another signal that she is prepared only to be a ruler, not an opposition leader. Others see it as a way to ensure her personal safety, given the threats to her life.

If elections were to be held in Uttar Pradesh today, she is likely to maintain her present strength, maybe even improve upon it, even if her party splits. That is why she recommended the dissolution of the assembly.

Few buy her explanation that she resigned because 40 BJP MLAs were all set to topple her government in the budget session. In the past too they had revolted and she fought back and turned the tables on them. One can only make informed guesses why she decided to quit. What she did not expect was the BJP facilitating the ascent of Mulayam 8212; that was the major miscalculation she made. She had reportedly called up Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani in Srinagar, urging him to stop Mulayam8217;s coronation.

The BJP too seems to have bitten off more than it can chew. Having facilitated Mulayam8217;s chief ministership, the party hopes he will crush Mayawati, allow it time to recoup and not break the party, an assurance he appears to have given the BJP leadership. But what happens if Mayawati ties up with the Congress? What happens to the BJP in a general election if her dalits and the Muslims, who want to play a role on a larger canvas, combine? What happens if Mulayam consolidates his position with the help of the breakaway group from the BSP, needing few others for his survival?

One thing is clear. Mayawati can provide immense leverage to whoever she aligns with, the BJP or the Congress, and both parties would want to redefine their relationship with her. But she should not forget that awakening and empowerment have their own logic. Those who worship her today may well come to question her tomorrow.