Can the Shinde govt beat anti-incumbency?
In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-Shiv Sena and the Congress-NCP were separated by just a couple of seats and less than 1 per cent of the votes. The findings of this first opinion suggest that the Congress-NCP government may be able to make it back after five years in power in their traditional bastion of Maharashtra. However, it is likely to be a narrow victory.
AND THE WINNER IS
CongNCP: 145-155
BJPSS: 120-130
Other: 10-15
Shinde government8217;s performance
Everything considered, a 2:1 majority backs the performance of the Congress-NCP government. The relatively poor ratings in the BJP-Shiv Sena strongholds of Konkan and the North are more than made up by the strong backing in Western Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha.
The leadership stakes
Voters were asked to indicate their preference for a chief ministerial candidate from each front. Balasaheb Thackeray, who has no intention of occupying the CM8217;s chair, is the choice of one third of the electorate 8212; no other leader is backed by even 20 per cent of the voters. Uddhav Thackeray, the working president of the Shiv Sena, brings up the rear with 10 per cent support.
As in the case of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, the top leader 8212; the non-contesting leader 8212; of the Congress-NCP combine, Sharad Pawar, is the choice of a third of the electorate for the post of CM. But unlike the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, the Congress-NCP does have a strong second leader in incumbent CM, Shinde and also former CM, Vilasrao Deshmukh. But the NCP is not so blessed. Chhagan Bhujbal, the ex-deputy chief minister from the NCP, who had to leave the government under a cloud, is supported by fewer than 10 per cent for the top job in the state.
Are you better off than five years ago?
Parts of Maharashtra have undergone considerable economic hardship during the past few years, primarily because of the drought. Voters were asked if their economic condition had improved or deteriorated over the past five years. Across the state as a whole, the balance of opinion is fairly evenly divided on whether the conditions have actually improved. In Marathwada, the consensus is that things have worsened, while voters in Mumbai are happy with the way things have gone.
Who is responsible for Telgi scam?
The Telgi scam is probably the most important scam to hit Maharashtra and it has taken its toll on politicians as well as police officers. When asked to apportion blame for the scandal, as many as 40 per cent were unable to respond. The rest blamed both almost equally.
Free power to farmers?
On balance, voters do not back the proposal to give free power to farmers. While voters in Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra are more sympathetic to farmers, voters in other regions and particularly in Mumbai are against this largesse to farmers.
A separate state for Vidarbha?
There is strong opposition to a separate state for Vidarbha. Even in Vidarbha, a majority 55 per cent is against carving out a separate state.