Looks like a campaign

Of late, especially since the start of Parliament8217;s budget session and the completion of the negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency on an India-specific nuclear safeguards agreement, Delhi has been agog with reports that the government is 8216;determined8217; to push through the deal 8216;regardless of the consequences8217;. For its part, the Left has been reaffirming that the UPA must 8216;choose between the deal and the government8217;. This clearly presages a head-on clash. But then, in true Congress style, there are also soothing, authoritative voices favouring 8216;widest possible consensus8217;, and ruling out a 8216;time-frame8217; for finalising the deal.

In any case, nothing can be said about the future of the nuclear deal until after the UPA-Left committee8217;s meeting on March 17. But the pertinent point is that the close link between the deal and early elections has apparently got blurred. Instead, the possibility, the likelihood and even the near-certainty of Lok Sabha elections being brought forward to October-November this year continue to be discussed avidly. But the focus this time around is almost entirely on the Rs 60,000-crore loan waiver for farmers, announced in P. Chidambaram8217;s please-all budget. No one should blame those who perceived in Sonia Gandhi8217;s speech, at the Ramlila Ground rally of farmers, not just the first shot in the election battle but a whole fusillade of electoral bullets. The prime minister reinforced her rhetoric by appealing to Congress workers to carry the message of the loan waiver to 8216;every farmer8217;.

The only other subject the Congress president took up at the rally was terrorism. She did deliver some sharp verbal blows to L.K. Advani, the BJP8217;s prime ministerial candidate. It was during his tenure as Union home minister that some of the worst terrorist outrages had taken place, and yet he has gone on accusing the Congress of being 8216;soft on terror8217;. Remarkably, she did not say a word about the nuclear deal either at the rally or at the Congress party meeting 48 hours later.

Even so, regardless of what turn the Congress-Communist standoff over the nuclear deal takes, the Left may have other reasons to withdraw its support to the UPA and precipitate fresh elections. It is crystal clear that the Left is determined to contest the next general election in opposition to the Congress and in partnership with what it calls the 8216;third alternative8217;, presumably because of the unhappy history of the 8216;third front8217;. Surely it cannot part company with the UPA only a day before the notification for the 2009 election. It would need time to acclimatise the public to its frontal and comprehensive attack on its present-day partner.

On the Congress side, there does not seem to be a clear-cut decision on the timing of the election yet. No doubt senior party leaders are carefully looking at the advantages of synchronising parliamentary elections with those to the assemblies of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi that must be held before the year end. The Congress calculation is that it should make the fullest use of the anti-incumbency factor in the BJP-ruled states. The issue is therefore wide open.

While Sonia Gandhi was delivering her hard-hitting speech at Delhi8217;s Ramlila Ground, Rahul Gandhi was travelling in the wilds of Orissa, contacting the poorest of the poor and even making a late night visit to a Naxalite stronghold. This was no mere coincidence. His grooming has begun in right earnest, and in the elections he would be the second most important Congress campaigner, next only to his mother. The well-mannered young man is entitled to make the most of his potential. But a few points need to be made. First, the process has begun rather late. His first four years in Parliament were marked by inaction and indecision. Second, since the large crowds he had attracted in UP and Gujarat during assembly elections did not turn into votes, will it be any different in Orissa? Third, he did talk of making 8216;radical8217; changes in the Congress organisation. But who will bring these about? And when and how? His reference to 8216;power brokers8217; was an echo of what his father had said during the Congress centenary session 22 years ago. Rajiv Gandhi did nothing about it. Sonia Gandhi has not even tried during the last 10 years.

There is one factor that would go entirely in Rahul Gandhi8217;s favour, though only within the confines of the Congress, that has shrunk greatly since Rajiv Gandhi8217;s succession to his slain mother. At any given time, there are at least half a dozen Congress leaders who harbour ambitions of becoming prime minister if the office is within the party8217;s reach. The trouble, however, is that none of them would serve under any of the other five aspirants, but all of them would be happy to work under a member of the Gandhi family.

The writer is a political commentator

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