Killing may complicate Indo-Pak relations

The latest developments in Balochistan could only sharpen the contradiction in the Indian policy between the short term necessity of dealing with whoever is in power in Islamabad and the long-term importance assisting the democratisation of Pakistan, without which stability on our western borders might remain an elusive goal.

It would be surprising if the Government does not speak up in the wake of the unfolding political earthquake in Balochistan.

When violence escalated in Balochistan last December, India had criticised Pakistan for its excessive use of force against the Baloch tribes and set off a strong negative reaction from Islamabad.

Although the Baloch resistance to the Pakistani state had continued intermittently over the years, it was the first time in decades that India chose to comment on the situation in Balochistan.

Having raised its voice against Pakistani oppression in Balochistan, as part of a conscious policy decision, India is unlikely to keep quiet when the leader of the Baloch resistance was killed Saturday in an encounter with the Pak Army.

Pakistan, which already accuses India of supporting the Baloch militancy, is likely to reject India8217;s 8220;intervention8221; in its internal affairs. New Delhi in the past has said it cannot remain silent on major developments in its own neighbourhood. While India has chosen to deal with General Musharraf and explore a final settlement to the Kashmir question, the latest developments in Balochistan bring into bold relief, the declining political credibility of the military rule in Pakistan. Nearly seven years after Musharraf took charge of Pakistan in a coup, his ability to bring a measure of stability to his nation has come under a big question mark.

The urban middle classes, which welcomed Musharraf as a saviour, has become increasingly critical. The two main political parties, the Pakistan People8217;s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League, which had remained sullen in the early years of Musharraf, have galvanised themselves into drafting an unusual joint charter for democracy for Pakistan. Keen to hold on to his uniform, the main source of his power, as well as the President8217;s post, for which he must be re-elected next year, Musharraf appears determined to appease the regressive forces rather than the democratic and modernist political forces at home.

India will surely be concerned with the fact that Musharraf has chosen to deal with the Baloch nationalist cause and a former top establishment figure like Bugti, who was Senator, Interior Minister and Governor of Balochistan, with extreme force while meekly surrendering to the Taliban and the religious extremists in Waziristan. New Delhi will also have reasons to worry about the impact of the fire in Balochistan on the stability of South West Asia. Although sparsely populated, Balochistan is a large territory that connects the sub-continent with Afghanistan and Iran.

Failure to address the aspirations of the Baloch people has also complicated the Pakistani plans to exploit the geo-economic significance of the province. All projects to bring natural gas and build energy pipelines from either Iran or Central Asia into Pakistan and India depend on peace in Balochistan. The unrest in Balochistan, which holds considerable reserves of gas, has come to highlight the absence of a genuine framework of federalism in Pakistan. Islamabad8217;s effort to develop the Gwadar port on the Makaran coast of Balochistan with Chinese assistance has also ran afoul of Baloch national sentiments.