Karzai, PM meet today

The strategic challenge before Singh and Karzai, however, is to find a way of drawing Musharraf into a mutually beneficial framework of regional cooperation. A simple way of launching it would be an early three-way summit meeting between the leaders.

Amidst rising political discord between Afghanistan and Pakistan and growing worries in Islamabad about expanding ties between New Delhi and Kabul, the idea of a triangular summit might seem outlandish.

Yet, the three leaders are confronted with the tension between the economic

imperatives of regional geography and the traditional Pakistani search for influence across its boundaries in India and Afghanistan.

A number of recent political developments have reinforced the notion that geography is destiny for India, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The decision by the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation at the Dhaka summit last November to admit Kabul as a full member of the organisation has initiated the process of integrating Afghanistan into South Asia and its incipient free trade zone.

The new US perspective on restoring the traditional economic and strategic links between Afghanistan and Central Asia on the one hand and the sub-continent on the other is reflected in the US State Department8217;s decision to regroup the regions into a single bureau.

Even more significantly, the Bush Administration has welcomed India8217;s growing economic profile in Afghanistan and is encouraging New Delhi to undertake greater political responsibilities in maintaining peace and stability in Afghanistan.

For Karzai and Musharraf, the long-term strategy of economic development rests on their ability to convert Afghanistan and Pakistan as bridge states between Central Asia and the sub-continent.

Last month in his speech at Amritsar, Singh talked about the prospects of renewing the old trading links between India and Pakistan on the one hand and the Persian Gulf and Central Asia on the other and making the borders in the region mere lines on the map.

The problem, however, has been in the mixed signals emanating from Pakistan.

A few days ago, Musharraf told a meeting of the military commanders that Pakistan must emerge as a trading hub in the region. While such a role would indeed be welcome to New Delhi and Kabul, they remain unconvinced about a real change in Islamabad8217;s approach.

For more than two decades, Pakistan has remained the source of extremism and terrorism in the region. While Musharraf has promised since the dramatic events of September 11, 2001 that he would counter the forces of destabilisation, New Delhi and Kabul remain unimpressed with the General8217;s willingness and ability to deliver on the ground.

India and Afghanistan are not the only ones skeptical about Musharraf8217;s policies. So are the US and the international community who have a high stake in the stability of Karzai8217;s Afghanistan and an improved Indo-Pak relationship.

While asking Musharraf to do more on curbing cross-border terrorism on both its eastern and western frontiers, Singh and Karzai need to encourage Pakistan to work with them in promoting regional stability.

Neither Singh nor Karzai wish away the geographic reality of Pakistan, which shares unstable frontiers with both. They need to underline the reality that a win-win game for all three could be constructed in the north-western parts of the sub-continent if Pakistan discards its old ways of using geography to gain trans-border political influence.

As Pakistan faces new turmoil in Balochistan and the Afghan civil war spills over into Waziristan, it is in Islamabad8217;s interest to build cooperative relationships with New Delhi and Kabul.

The million dollar question before Singh and Karzai is how to get Pakistan act in its own long-term self-interest.