Janpath has other ideas

The answer lies in the cases plaguing her. Cases in Delhi and cases in Chennai. Cases initiated by the Central government and cases begun by the DMK ministry. Cases such as the one involving JJ Publications where 80 crore rupees allegedly found their way into her account. Cases such as the one looking into her government8217;s purchase of television sets or the one looking into her ministry8217;s sale of SPIC shares.

Those are the tip of an extremely large iceberg. Small wonder if Jayalalitha sometimes feels she is a steerage-class passenger aboard the Titanic.

They say misery lovescompany. If so, Jayalalitha may take comfort in knowing that she is in excellent company. President Clinton, to name but one, isn8217;t terribly pleased with the rulers in Delhi. One American magazine reported him as sighing for a quot;less unpredictablequot; government in India.

There is, however, a major difference. Poes Garden is unhappy because the Vajpayee ministry isn8217;t doing enough. The White House is dissatisfied because the Indian government is doing far too much.

Bill Clinton is right in thinking that India8217;s responses used to be fairly predictable. For most of the 8217;90s, Indian ministers generally did as they were told.

In 1991, for instance, The Economist, noted that India8217;s economy was in the safe hands of the IMF. The Congress may boast of Manmohan Singh8217;s reforms; the G-8 nations know where they were really authored. And in 1995 a hint from Washington was enough to postpone all thought of a nuclear test, even putting the Agni programme into the freezer.

Well, the era of knuckling under isover. That is being rubbed in for the benefit of those white-skinned envoys who haven8217;t yet caught on to the fact that this is 1998 and not 1898.

Take the British High Commissioner. David Gore-Booth8217;s masters had received Pakistan-occupied Kashmir8217;s puppet premier in London. In the days of turn-the-other-cheek diplomacy, this would have passed without repercussions. Today, if doors open in London, they are shut in Delhi.

When the High Commissioner tried to reach the Prime Minister, he was informed that a meeting couldn8217;t be arranged. Even the Foreign Secretary was too busy. Britain8217;s representative was told to meet the relevant Joint Secretary if he had anything to say.

In my last column I mentioned an envoy who left Delhi with much fanfare shortly after Pokharan II. I wrote too that he too found only a Joint Secretary willing to see him once he returned. That however offended his sense of his own importance. So our man sent his deputy instead. The Joint Secretary8217;s riposte was to send herimmediate junior.

Of course, foreign powers can8217;t vote in the Lok Sabha to bring down the Vajpayee government. Jayalalitha can, but what is the alternative? Is the AIADMK ready to face the electorate if it forces another General Election?There is, however, one person who is ideally placed both to topple the BJP-led government and to install another in its place. That person is Sonia Gandhi. The Congress can definitely form the nucleus of a non-BJP regime.

Such an administration, given the inglorious record of post-Independence Congress, may well be more quot;helpfulquot; when it comes to the use of Article 356 in Tamil Nadu. And given that almost every ministry in fifty years was formed by Congressmen, former Congressmen, or backed by the Congress, foreign powers will find it satisfactorily predictable.

But should Sonia Gandhi play along? Does she truly benefit if others railroad her into precipitate action? Come to that, does her party benefit?If a Prime Minister falls, convention demands that thePresident call upon the leader of the opposition. Does Sonia Gandhi want Sharad Pawar to come within sniffing distance of Race Course Road?

Pawar, I believe, has almost everything going for him. He has taken pains to stay in touch with Jayalalitha and Chandrababu Naidu. He will have the support of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Laloo Prasad Yadav and the Left. And he proved in Maharashtra that he has the skills to weld an unwieldy mass into a BJP-beating coalition.

For all his political, administrative and financial skills, however, there is one thing that Sharad Pawar does not have 8212; Sonia Gandhi8217;s confidence. But would Sonia Gandhi want to attempt a coup, Pawar or no Pawar?

Any Congress-led government would be subject to the same pressures that worry the Vajpayee ministry. Is the Congress in shape to fight another election? The recent by-elections suggest not. The media concentrated on the BJP8217;s lacklustre performance, but we should also look at the Congress. In crucial Uttar Pradesh, the party8217;s downwardspiral hasn8217;t been halted. It contested seven seats, lost its deposit in each, and polled a miserable three per cent. It lost Ernakulam in Kerala for only the second time. The Telugu Desam gained a seat at its expense in Andhra Pradesh.

These were Assembly constituencies. But Lok Sabha seats were at stake too 8212; Himachal Pradesh8217;s Mandi, Punjab8217;s Tarn Taran, and Jammu amp; Kashmir8217;s Ladakh. All three were in the Congress kitty in the eleventh Lok Sabha. Today, they belong to the BJP, the Akali Dal a BJP ally, and the National Conference which is offering issue-based support to the Vajpayee ministry.

An Arjun Singh may be desperate enough to risk a General Election, but I am not sure his advice is in the Congress8217;s interests. And for every M.L. Fotedar urging Sonia Gandhi to step on the accelerator, there is an A.K. Antony saying the time isn8217;t ripe to attempt a parliamentary coup.

The sphinx of 10 Janpath isn8217;t saying much, but her actions speak for themselves. The hullabaloo over Ayodhya ended quitetamely. Some disgusted Congressmen point out that Sonia Gandhi visited Vajpayee at home 8212; an honour denied Narasimha Rao, Deve Gowda, and Gujral. Some are even muttering that she is trying to cut a deal to save herself from the Bofors backlash.

I foresee increasing pressure from Chennai and points abroad on the Vajpayee ministry. It won8217;t work. The neap tide of the law shall roll along remorselessly irrespective of which Canute tries to order it back.