Falling apart

As the heavy police bandobast outside ministerial bungalows in Mumbai helps to emphasise, these are troubled times for the ruling Shiv Se...

As the heavy police bandobast outside ministerial bungalows in Mumbai helps to emphasise, these are troubled times for the ruling Shiv Sena. It was in one of those bungalows that former Minister of State for Energy Suresh Navale alleges he was threatened by an armed group of Shiv Sainiks. Navale was promptly sacked for his pains.

Consequently, two festering crises have come to a head. With the number of mafia killings in Mumbai this year rising to record levels, the government8217;s handling of law and order has come in for sharp criticism. On the back of that a Shiv Sena minister8217;s charges of lawlessness can only deepen the embarrassment of Chief Minister Manohar Joshi. It is not the first incident of its kind. A year ago the leader of the Opposition, Chhagan Bhujbal, had a narrow escape when goons entered and ransacked his bungalow. Bhujbal similarly pointed a finger at the Shiv Sena.

Alongside worsening law and order are indications of a gathering political storm within the Shiv Sena. Navale8217;s exitfollows close on the heels of Ganesh Naik8217;s, a powerful leader from Thane district who has become a rallying point for party dissidents ever since he fell out of favour with party bosses.

Caste factors also complicate the scene. The Agris, a restive, semi-urban community, are said to stand behind Naik. Navale and others claim the Marathas are being alienated by the Sena. These tensions and other forms of discontent have risen to the surface witness the cross-voting in the recent Rajya Sabha poll for one principal reason.

Bal Thackeray8217;s authoritarian grip on the Shiv Sena has weakened visibly since the severe setback in the last Lok Sabha election. His absence from the public arena in the last three months, has exacerbated feelings of gloom within the party. Some of the Sena8217;s populist projects remain on the agenda but Joshi is hard put to implement them in the midst of a financial crunch. The BJP, poorly led, does little but wait and hope its partner will somehow pull out of its downward spiral.

TheCongress has long believed that the Shiv Sena-BJP coalition would write its own marching orders. Although the government appears shaky, there is still some way to go and nothing is inevitable in politics. So the temptation for the Opposition may be to hasten things along.

There is talk of moving a no-confidence motion in the Assembly. While such a course is perfectly legitimate and may even appear to be in the interests of better governance, there are two good reasons why the Opposition should not precipitate a crisis. The potential law and order fallout of a change of government cannot be taken lightly given the antecedents of some key actors.

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Things would be more manageable if the ruling coalition were seen to collapse, if it does, of its own accord. Second, the Bombay High Court has bound Chief Minister Manohar Joshi to his word to table the Srikrishna Commission report on the riots of 1992-93 during the current session. It is only proper that the Shiv Sena-BJP bear the political consequences of actingon the report or, conversely, failing to act on it, according to law. There will be time enough then to determine where Maharashtra8217;s interests lie.