Disaster or a hard place?

The US is fighting a losing war in Iraq. But withdrawal will have intolerable consequences for Iraq and the world

It is being described as the nadir of US power, the worst moment for American prowess since Ronald Reagan celebrated morning in America almost a quarter of a century ago. The Congressional elections next week in the US have generated a vigorous debate on the future of US policy in Iraq. With October emerging as the deadliest month for US troops in the three year old conflict, the question staring at US policymakers is how long will it take them to concede that the enterprise is closer to failure than success.

There don8217;t seem to be any good options left. There is a growing sense in the US and in major European capitals that the Bush Administration is belatedly engaged in a search for an exit strategy that would rapidly reduce the role of US combat troops in Iraq and would gradually increase the involvement of other states, including Iraq8217;s neighbours such as Syria and Iran. It is now being hoped that the Iraq Study Group, formed by the US president earlier this year and headed by the former secretary of state, James Baker, will provide the Bush Administration with the political cover to abandon its grandiose plan of establishing a vibrant democracy in Iraq in favour of a more limited focus on establishing enough stability to allow US troops to leave without catastrophic consequences.

George Bush has himself conceded that the growing sectarian violence in Iraq could be compared to the Tet offensive in Vietnam in 1968 that was a major factor in turning US public opinion against US presence in Vietnam. Sectarian violence in Iraq is at an all time high, demolishing any hopes for a political reconciliation. Political authority of the government in Baghdad has collapsed and local militias are asserting their control over Iraqi neighbourhoods. The Shias and Kurds are in no mood to make political concessions to the Sunnis to bring them back to the negotiating table and the Sunni leadership is getting radicalised by the day. The US and its coalition partners have lost control of the political process and the initiative has passed into Iraqi hands who do not seem eager for a political compromise.

The US is now pushing for the Iraqi military to take over the primary responsibility for security in the next 12 to 18 months. But the Iraqi security establishment is in no position to take on this onerous task given the ground realities. The Iraqi police is ridden with corruption and sectarian loyalties.

The Republican candidates are facing a hard time defending the war and have been doing their best to avoid the issue altogether. But the deteriorating situation in Iraq and the tumult over the war has thrust it to the centre of the political stage. It now threatens to make the Republicans the minority party in the House of Representatives with a high likelihood that if present trends continue, they might lose the Senate too.

Though President Bush publicly continues to show resolve in the face of an implacable adversary and loud domestic criticism, a bipartisan consensus is emerging in Washington in favour of a less ambitious US presence in Iraq. If the Democrats seize the Congress next week the clamour for withdrawal from Iraq is bound to grow even further. The implications of a hasty withdrawal from Iraq can be quite catastrophic for Iraq, Middle East and indeed the entire world.

Osama bin Laden has made no bones about the weakness of the West, and especially the US, in the face of rising military difficulties and its inability to sustain a long war against the faithful. A withdrawal from Iraq would reinforce this perception and would be seen as a major victory for Al Qaeda and other jihadists, rejuvenating their global ambitions. Moreover, it would give Al Qaeda the control of a state to launch further attacks. Much is at stake in the policy option that the US chooses in the next few months. If it ultimately decides to cut and run, not only would the geo-strategic stability of the Middle East be in jeopardy, but the growth of Sunni jihadism and terrorism against the 8220;infidels8221; would become very difficult to contain. Ironically, it is the US that can find refuge in its geographical isolation behind two oceans though it would be short-lived.

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But the worst affected would be the countries of Western Europe and states such as India. So far, India has given the evolving situation in Iraq scant attention with the hope that the best policy towards Iraq was to have no policy at all. But given the rapidity with which events are moving in Iraq, India would do well to carefully assess how its strategic interests would be affected by the coming US withdrawal and take appropriate steps to safeguard its interests. While the Indian government is rightfully concerned about the implications of next week8217;s Congressional elections for the US-India nuclear pact, there are other equally important issues that it can ignore only at its own peril.

The writer teaches in King8217;s College London