Desperate deals

It has retained its alliance with the Samata Party in Bihar, the Akali Dal in Punjab, the Haryana Vikas Party in Haryana, even though its coalition with the BSP in Uttar Pradesh broke down on a discordant note.

But the party8217;s recent tie-ups with Jayalalitha8217;s AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, Navin Patnaik8217;s BJD in Orissa, Laxmi Parvathi8217;s TDP NTR in Andhra Pradesh and Mamata Banerjee8217;s Trinamul Congress in West Bengal are far from firm.

And the BJP may have to pay the price. For in its search for wannabe electoral allies, it has been forced toshed its hard Hindutva image. It8217;s handshake with Jayalalitha and its support to alleged mafia dons like D PYadav have also put a question mark over it8217;s claim as a crusader against corruption and criminalisation.

Fortunately, its opponents are much worse off. Neither ideological proximity nor political expediency can explain their mutual wranglings.

Prime Minister I K Gujral, for instance, is accepting support from his outfit8217;s sworn enemy Akali Dal-BJP combine in Amritsar. Senior Janata Dal leader Ram Vilas Paswan is depending on the Samata-BJP cooperation to save his Hajipur seat in Bihar.

And the Communists, who lectured their less politically educated UF friends about equi-distance with both the Congress and the BJP, have entered into quot;adjustmentsquot; with rivals Congress in Punjab while fighting against friendly Janata Dal in Karnataka.

In the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty8217;s playfield Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP rules with the help of the breakaway Congress and BSP groups, almost all the UF constituentsare at war with each other.

Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has totally rejected the demands of the Janata Dal and the Communists and is boasting that he can tackle the BJP single-handed. Ajit Singh8217;s Bharatiya Kisan Kamgar Party 8212; a constituent of the UF 8212; has switched back to the Congress 8212; the party he quit after its 1996 debacle. The JD is fighting against the SP at 23 places and the CPI at six.

The scene in Bihar is no different. The BJP-Samata alliance there is opposed by two separate two united fronts 8212; Laloo Prasad Yadav8217;s Jan Morcha and the UF. Ironically, the constituents of both these are far from united. In fact, within their respective domains, they are fighting more bitterly among themselves than against the BJP and its allies.

The 17-party front comprising the JD, the SP and the Communists formed against Laloo in the wake of the fodder scam has virtually collapsed. The JD is contesting 37 of the 54 seats in the State, the CPI 15 and the CPM two.

And former Bihar ChiefMinister and breakaway Congress leader Jagannath Mishra has made the complicated situation more complex. His Bihar Jan Congress is contesting 19 seats in alliance with Mulayam Singh Yadav8217;s SP 15 seats.

Confusion also prevails in the Sitaram Kesri-Laloo Yadav camp which hoped to ward off the BJP-Samata challenge through vote accretions among Laloo8217;s Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress and the JMM Soren. The RJD has fielded 39 candidates in Bihar and the Congress 26, and decided to have quot;friendly contestsquot; on quite a few seats. Not lagging far behind, the JMM is also having friendly contests with the Congress at five places and the RJD at two in South Bihar.

The Congress-RPI-SP seat adjustments in Maharashtra against Shiva Sena might have gladdened the heart of Maharashtra Congress leader Sharad Pawar, who appeared to be fighting against the ruling BJP-Shiva Sena combine with his back to the wall. But it has left other UF constituents like the JD and the Communists crying foul. The Congress Party8217;stactical gain in Maharashtra would seem to have been neutralised by its last-minute hiccups in forging an electoral alliance with Shankersinh Vaghela8217;s Rashtriya Janata Party RJP in Gujarat.

Despite Gujarat PCC chief C.D. Patel8217;s assertion that quot;it is better that the alliance has broken downquot;, others like former PCC Chief Prabodh Rawal and Satyajitsinh Gaekwad feel it might help the BJP.

The contest in other major States where the BJP is strong is primarily between the BJP and the Congress. In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where the third force hardly exists, the Congress hopes to cash in on Sonia8217;s quot;electrifying campaigningquot;.

The BSP, which could have emerged as the third force in Madhya Pradesh has decided to back the Congress in Gwalior Madhavrao Scindia and Hoshangabad Arjun Singh. An alliance with the BSP may also help the Congress in taking on the ruling BJP-Akali combine in Punjab.

However, in Haryana, the BSP has allied with Devi Lal8217;s outfit complicating things for both the Congress andthe ruling BJP-HVP combine. The alliance also exposes the opportunistic vacillations of BSP supremo Kanshi Ram who publicly says that he is ready to do business with anyone in case of yet another hung Parliament.

Among the Southern States, Karnataka would have appeared an ideal hunting ground for the BJP, specially because the party had bagged six Lok Sabha seats from the State in 1996. Lukewarm response to recent public meetings of the new BJP ally, Lok Shakti leader Ramakrishna Hegde in the State, however, has left observers wondering.

The Janata Dal is fragmented in Karnataka also, and anti-Deve Gowda leaders are trying their best to mar the former Prime Minister8217;s pitch in his home State. But it remains to be seen who 8212; the Congress or the BJP-Lok Shakti alliance 8212; would be the principal gainer from this fragmentation.

In Tamil Nadu, the contest is mainly between the DMK-TMC combine and the AIADMK, with which the BJP is now allied. That outfits like PMK, MDMK, V Ramamurthy8217;s Rajiv TamizhagaCongress and Subramanian Swamy8217;s Janata Party are also on the same bandwagon might create an impression that the BJP is on to something promising.

The DMK-TMC combine has succeeded in maintaining its alliance with the Communists in Tamil Nadu, making things difficult for the AIADMK. The BJP8217;s gameplan here, however, is to merely make a token presence to prove that the Tamil people did not consider it untouchable. The BJP also does not expect much help from Lakshmi Parvathi in Andhra Pradesh, where the Congress and Chandrababu Naidu8217;s TDP would be the principal contenders for power.

In Orissa, the contest would be mainly between the Congress and the BJD-BJP combine. The BJP is a non-entity in the State and the BJD is also an untested political entity. Even when the veteran Kalinga leader Biju Patnaik was alive, his political influence was on the wane. His son, Navin Patnaik, cannot hope to reap a harvest simply by relying on his father8217;s legacy.