Coping with rising plurality

Lesson number two is that what is morally right often turns out to be politically expedient. Had the BJP not supped with the likes of Naresh Aggarwal and Sukh Ram, Jayalalitha would not have got the impression that she would get away with her demands to seat Subramaniam Swamy in North Block. She has to contend with Swamy breathing down her neck but she might have allowedherself greater manoeuvrability than she did.

But that the BJP was able to say 8220;this far and no further8221;, even if it meant jeopardising its government, will have a salutary effect on its allies in the future. They will know that, beyond a point, it is not prepared to be pushed around. The truth is that had the party gone hunting, it could not have found more temperamental allies. Giving the Finance portfolio to Swamy has its own ramifications in the MNCs-versus-swadeshi fight that is now on. Besides the intemperate language he has used about the party and its leaders, he is also the head of Chandraswamy8217;s trust, and that would open up a different pandora8217;s box.

Lesson number three 8212; and this is valid for the Congress too is summed up in one word: power-sharing. The BJP gained by going for alliances, the Congress lost out by not forging them, except in Maharashtra. Mulayam Singh added inches to his height because he also wooed the upper castes this time and added 7 percentage points to his vote share.Jayalalitha was on the comeback trail when she fashioned the alliance with the PMK, with its hold among the Vanniyars, and the MDMK along with other small groups. She polled 26 per cent of the vote, her allies 21 per cent.

The trouble is that neither the BJP nor the Congress today is in a dominant enough position and that is what is making government formation so difficult. Election 1998 was not expected to throw up two-party rule. It was meant to outline the contours of two alternative systems, with the Congress and the BJP being the pivots of coalition arrangements.

As it turns out, till either of the two parties gains further, a stable coalition will not emerge. The BJP needs another 100 MPs aside from its own and the Congress another 135, making it possible for the tail to wag the dog. Jayalalitha and allies account for a whopping 27, and we are seeing competitive bidding at its worst. She might have found it difficult to bare her fangs had the BJP garnered 200 seats.

The Congress vote share droppedby over 2 per cent this time and the BJP8217;s share did not go up as much as the party had expected 8212; it increased by just over 3 per cent. The two parties are almost neck and neck now, the Congress having over 26 per cent of the vote share and the BJP under 25.

They have not been able to dent the 8220;third force8221; in any substantial way. It has more or less retained its vote share. I do not use the 8220;third force8221; as an exchangeable term for the United Front, but as the pool of smaller parties outside of the two main groupings. But this third group is more fragmented today than in the past, with around 40 parties in the Lok Sabha this time.

The Janata Dal may have more or less disappeared. It has got converted into other labels 8212; the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar, with Laloo doing better than expected, the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa. Over the years, Mulayam Singh has taken away the major chunk of the JD in UP. The base had, at one time, belonged to Charan Singh and later swung to the Janata Party and then tothe Janata Dal. Even the BSP has consolidated its position among the lower castes, though its seats have declined. Fewer Muslims voted for the party this time except in Baharaich and Azamgarh where it fielded Muslims, thanks to its alliance with the BJP, and the upper castes deserted it because it broke that alliance. This only shows that the BSP has increased its grip over the dalits and the smaller OBCs since it has not lost the vote share it had in 1996.

India8217;s plurality 8212; and democracy 8212; has its own logic. Unless mainstream parties come to reflect this, they will be forced to shake hands with smaller parties which are based on caste, community or region. Fifty years of electoral democracy have created the consciousness in many communities that they must wield power and not be satisfied with the tokenism of the past. They have turned to smaller outfits like the SP and the BSP only because mainstream organisations have not given them their due place.The immediate challenge of governance before theBJP, were it to cobble together a government, is to exhibit flexibility without making major compromises which would rob it of its identity and image.

Its long-term task, however, is to widen its social base, win over the SCs and STs and assuage the fears of Muslims. Paradoxically, the challenge before the Congress is no different.