Congress lags behind eager BJP

The party has three plans up its sleeve. Plan A envisages Lok Sabha elections in December along with the assembly elections in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. This would not require the permission of the CEC nor the support of Congress to effect a constitutional amendment.

Plan B is to consider February, after knowing the outcome of the Hindi states in November. Plan C is to hold the general elections on schedule in September-October 2004.

The trouble is that neither the prime minister nor his party MPs in Lok Sabha favour early elections. No one wants his term truncated unless left with no choice. Of course, Advani would not make such a suggestion without talking to the PM. But the astute player that he is, Vajpayee would have known that the allies would disfavour the idea, when he suggested that Advani consult with them.

Be it Plan A, B or C, one thing is clear: The BJP has fully entered the election mode and there are enough straws in the wind to indicate this. Irrespective of when the election is held, Advani has underscored the point that the BJP is ready to face elections at any time.

Look at the way Law Minister Arun Jaitley has moved on the electoral reforms front. He has already pushed through three Bills 8212; open voting for Rajya Sabha elections, legitimising corporate financing and postal votes for the armed forces. A large number of army personnel in Haryana and Himachal Pradesh will now be able to vote and this is expected to help the BJP. The BJP is trying to consolidate its strength to the smallest percentage point.

The party8217;s think tanks have been meeting, planning, strategising 8212; the idea being to guard the party8217;s flanks and mount a multifaceted offensive against the Congress. On the media front, the director general of Doordarshan is on his way out to make way for a 8220;more performance oriented8221; person now that DD8217;s Metro channel will be converted into a 24 hour news channel with a wide outreach. This is bound to give a tremendous advantage to any ruling party in the run-up to elections.

A keystone of the BJP8217;s strategy is to hurt the Congress. Just look at the moves of the last few days. The Congress government of Mukut Mithi fell in Arunachal Pradesh, and the one-man demolition squad called Gegong Apang was able to form the alternative. Revolt is brewing in Meghalaya and unless the party high command is alert, there will be a repeat of Arunachal there.

A list of 22 Congress MLAs from Punjab was doing the rounds in Delhi, of those who were willing to break and form a government supported by the Akali Dal. The damage has been contained for the moment but the crisis is far from over. Ruling Maharashtra MLAs, belonging to the NCP, were in the capital, meeting Shiv Sena leaders, giving rise to speculation about the possibillity of a split in the NCP which would mean the end of the Congress-NCP Government in Mumbai.

Congress governments are suddenly under siege, and the idea is to create an impression that the Congress may be in power in 15 states, but it neither knows how to rule nor can it hold together its governments. On the other hand, the BJP is getting ready to project its USP: That it can successfully run a 24 party coalition, which has never happened in the past.

The BJP8217;s other plan is to juxtapose Atal Bihari Vajpayee against Sonia Gandhi, and try and win back the 8220;Ab ki baari Atal Bihari8221; voter of 1998 and 1999, who may have become disenchanted. A simultaneous poll would facilitate this; Vajpayee8217;s health has also improved.

The BJP has thus put the Congress in a reactive mode. It is not, for instance, taking advantage of the unrest brewing in the Gujarat BJP against Narendra Modi8217;s style of functioning. Nor is it able to evolve a stand on the Telengana issue with the Telengana Rashtra Samithi giving nightmares to Chandrababu Naidu. Nor has it finalised its stand on a pre-poll alliance with Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra, to keep the poachers at bay. Or with Mulayam Singh Yadav. Its decisions are piecemeal. For all the success of Shimla, unlike the BJP, the Congress does not seem to be moving to any plan to come to power in 2004.