Byelection blues

It is a pathetically vain attempt that J. Jayalalitha has made to play down the AIADMK's defeat in the three Assembly byelections. Few but...

It is a pathetically vain attempt that J. Jayalalitha has made to play down the AIADMK8217;s defeat in the three Assembly byelections. Few but her faithful flock will believe her story blaming it all on rigging and the Election Commission8217;s refusal to order repolling. If she believes it herself, she would not have stopped short of calling for a street riposte to the electoral verdict and asked the party cadres to accept it in a philosophical fashion.

The results, of course, reveal no wave8217; of the kind that removed her from power. The poor voter turnout in all the three constituencies Tiruchirappalli II, Nellikkuppam and Aranthangi as well as the low margins of victory for the DMK-led front made for no anti-Jayalalitha landslide.

The poll outcome, however, is still a serious setback for the Puratchi Thalaivi on two counts. In the first place, the context bestowed on these contests a much greater importance than the usual run of byelections, as acknowledged in the campaign lines of both the sides. The AIADMK tried to sound dire as it called the event a quot;dress rehearsalquot; for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections due early next year. The DMK responded by projecting it as quot;a referendumquot; on the four years of its rule. Secondly, and specially for Jayalalitha, the byelections were to test out the AIADMK-led alliance, including the Left and the Tamil Maanila Congress.

The TMC of G. K. Moopanar, till recently an quot;equidistantquot; crusader against quot;communalism and corruptionquot;, identified with the BJP and the AIADMK respectively, was considered a big catch. The byelections have dealt a hard blow to her come-back hopes on both the counts.

All the more so for the fact that the voting figures add up to a verdict against Jayalalitha and her party rather than one for M. Karunanidhi and the DMK. The predictable anti-incumbency mood was indeed evident in the uncrowded polling booths, but the AIADMK and its allies were utterly unable to take advantage of it. It is hard to say how much of their failure was due to factors of poll-eve emergence the court judgement against the former Chief Minister in the Pleasant Stay Hotel case and the Dharmapuri bus-burning tragedy. It is clear that quot;corruptionquot; has not entirely ceased to be an issue with the state8217;s electorate and that her party has yet to live down its unsavoury and unruly reputation acquired in its days of power.

She cannot hope to win public sympathy and Assembly seats by complaining about corruption cases allegedly quot;foistedquot; on her alone. The AIADMK cadres cannot claim a divine right to cause public disturbances to demonstrate a blind loyalty to their leader.

The AIADMK8217;s allies have shown no sign at all of any intention to consider a realignment. The reasons are to be found perhaps outside the state-level politics. The Left would appear loath to leave the AIADMK-headed camp because of its greater aversion to the BJP at the national level, and its higher priority for opposition to the National Democratic Alliance. The TMC, on the other hand, would seem to have cast its lot with the Congress in its overriding loyalty to Sonia Gandhi or what she symbolises and, consequently, with Jayalalitha, for the time being at any rate.