Bad-boy syndrome

There is more to Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan8217;s new claims about Pakistan8217;s nuclear and missile capabilities than sheer bluster or cussedness. The father of the country8217;s nuclear weapons programme, who announced his readiness to explode a nuclear device and plans for a missile with a longer range than the Ghauri8217;s, cannot expect to get a rise out of New Delhi which has sensibly chosen not to overreact to Pakistani provocations.

But Khan was clearly seeking attention from President Clinton8217;s special envoy, Bill Richardson, as he arrived in Islamabad for talks with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. It is nothing but the 8220;bad boy8221; syndrome all over again. The worse Islamabad behaves the more it expects to be rewarded by Washington. In this instance it is not just some action on the F-16s marooned in the Arizona desert it is looking for but avoidance of sanctions under the Missile Technology Control Regime MTCR. A Pentagon spokesman said in Washington that a review of possible sanctions against Pakistan was in anadvanced stage following the test-firing of the Ghauri on April 5. And that is what Islamabad must worry about despite Richardson8217;s soothing noises.The US administration, usually eager to offer the carrot, may not have such an option this time. In the wake of revelations about presidential campaign donations linked to breaches of US national security in the transfer of sensitive missile technology to China, President Clinton could come under increasing pressure from Congress and domestic public opinion to take appropriate action under the MTCR vis-a-vis Pakistan and, if it is established as the mother of the Ghauri, against China as well. It is not only self-promotion that makes Khan and Sharif insist, without carrying much conviction, on Pakistan8217;s indigenous knowhow but the overwhelming need is to protect their suppliers. India8217;s defence and intelligence establishment has the resources and if not, should acquire them rapidly to reach an independent conclusion about the nature and origins of the Ghaurirather than relying on the possibly biased judgments of western analysts. Missile technology transfer to Pakistan is also a fit case for lobbying with friends of India in the US Congress.

There are signs of frustration in Islamabad8217;s search for a new basis for its relationship with the US. Its usefulness as a frontline ally reduced with the end of the Cold War, it feels 8220;left in the lurch8221; which is how Foreign Minister Gohar Ayub Khan once explained the disappointment with the US. Its Kashmir card won attention for a while but is no longer getting the kind of response Islamabad hopes for. In Afghanistan, the stalemate between the Taliban and Northern Alliance, leaves Pakistan not only without the advantage it sought but many in the Islamic world are displeased with its support to fundamentalist forces. If Washington and India between them can succeed in persuading Islamabad that sabre-rattling is also totally unproductive, there is a good chance that the ruling establishment will concentrate its effortsin areas where progress and definite gains are possible. One such is expanding trade relations and economic cooperation in the South Asia region. Nawaz Sharif should give this more thought.