ARD tactics that won146;t work

If ARD carries out its threat of mass resignation of its legislators, it will have to take the fight to the streets, where it8217;s unlikely to win

The Alliance for Restoration of Democracy ARD 8212; a conglomerate of opposition parties including the Pakistan People8217;s Party PPP of Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz PML-N of exiled premier Nawaz Sharif 8212; wants President General Pervez Musharraf and his handpicked Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz to resign, come July 31. If they don8217;t, it has threatened that its legislators will resign en masse. The government has shrugged and moved on. Indeed, the president of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, has actually challenged the ARD to carry out its threat. He argues that the government can hold by-elections and extend the tenure of the present assemblies by a year. Constitutionally, Shujaat has a point. The government can invoke Article 232 clause 6 of the Constitution, dealing with emergency powers, and ride out the ARD8217;s threat.

There is another factor, too. The other opposition bloc, the Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal 8212; a six-party religious alliance 8212; agrees with the ARD on the issue of ousting General Musharraf. The problem, however, is that that8217;s about all on which the ARD and the MMA agree. Beyond this, while Nawaz Sharif8217;s League has some ideological affinity with MMA8217;s rightwing philosophy, the PPP has a completely different worldview.

In addition to the MMA-ARD differences, there are also vertical faultlines within the two opposition blocs. The PPP and the PML-N do not agree on a number of issues. They were archrivals during the 8217;90s and the only thing that has kept them swimming together so far is the fear of sinking alone. Ditto for the MMA, which has seen continuous tension between its two main component parties: Jamiat Ulema-e Islam of Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Jama8217;at-e Islami of Qazi Hussian Ahmed. Rehman does not want a head-on confrontation with the government; he would rather wait and bide his time.

The question is: what might have made the ARD give the July 31 deadline? It seems to have been a confluence of factors. The final days of May began with major electricity cuts and power and water shortages in Karachi. Violence broke out in several areas of the city. Then came the Karachi Stock Market crash. Reports and later inquiries pointed to the involvement of the PM and some of his advisors. Ultimately, the PM had to remove the SECP chairman.

The government8217;s bid to privatise got a major blow when the Supreme Court of Pakistan shot down the deal to privatise the Pakistan Steel Mills PSM. The decision showed the Privatisation Commission had sold off PSM for a loss after paying for all the liabilities. The scam has hurt the government8217;s credibility and set the privatisation process back. All these 8216;scams8217; came on the heels of the sugar scam, which was hushed up because of the involvement of some ruling League leaders.

Waziristan and Balochistan have seen heightened military activity. While General Musharraf says trouble in Balochistan is orchestrated, his own provincial government in the province thinks Islamabad is responsible for the violence and its perpetual financial troubles. The situation is becoming highly embarrassing for Musharraf, not least because it shows that even the treasury members feel that they can8217;t remain politically relevant without voicing the populist sentiment in Balochistan.

The government is definitely in trouble. But can the ARD succeed? The July 31 ultimatum means the ARD will have to resign if the president and PM do not. If it doesn8217;t carry out its threat, it will lose credibility. If it does, it will have to take the fight to the streets. But that8217;s where the problem lies: there is no indication that the ARD can win on the streets. In terms of personal records and human rights records, Musharraf is potentially a good leader; his only major drawback is that he dons an army uniform, acts as the leader of the army and continues to live in the comfort zone associated with this status quo. But these are unimportant factors for the common man. Also, the ARD leaders, Nawaz and Bhutto, are not prepared to return to Pakistan; at least as yet.

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In all probability, ARD has upped the ante beyond the point at which it can sustain the conflict. By doing so, it has deprived itself of any fallback position.

The writer is assistant news editor of 8216;The Friday Times8217;zima