A missile makes India secure

The reported movement of some Prithvi missiles from Hyderabad to Jalandhar has seen a chaotic response from the Indian government which has...

The reported movement of some Prithvi missiles from Hyderabad to Jalandhar has seen a chaotic response from the Indian government which has added more fuel to the existing fire surrounding India8217;s guided missile development project. While there would be numerous interpretations about the motives behind the leak8217; in the Washington Post, there is no gainsaying the fact that New Delhi has allowed the US a window of opportunity to pontificate about a possible missile race in the subcontinent.

New Delhi8217;s shifting stance on the reported movement of Prithvi missiles has been quite unnecessary and clearly unwarranted. Over the years, there has been a growing perception that the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme IGMDP, which came into being in 1983, has been under pressure from Western countries, particularly the US, since the early 1990s. Official reaction to such suggestions has been denial, whilst pointing to the 15 trial flights conducted for Prithvi. In the initial years, the focus of the IGMDP was on Prithvi and Agni missiles, with the development of Prithvi proceeding much faster than Agni. The Prithvi made its first flight in February 1988. By September 1994 after the first and second user trials on June 4 and 6, 1994, Army officials were claiming that the Prithvi missile was 8220;in the final stages of the user trials and the missile system should be ready for induction very soon8221;. Three years later, the Ministry of Defence in its Annual Report for 1996-97 cryptically noted that 8220;activities subsequent to successful completion of user trial phase are in progress in respect of 150 km range version of Prithvi for the Army8221;.

The report, however, is silent on indicating whether production of the missile had begun. Despite frequent assertions by New Delhi that development efforts for Prithvi and Agni have not been stymied because of international pressures, ground realities clearly reveal that full scale deployment of Prithvi at this point was a non-starter. According to some analysts, international pressures are not the only reason for the slowdown in progress. They point to the absence of a dedicated warhead for the missile. Other deficiencies reportedly hampering progress in the Prithvi relate to technologies involved in reducing the Circular Error of Probability CEP.There is little doubt that Prithvi is required as a legitimate instrument for deterring our adversaries irrespective of whether some believe that it is specific to one country or that it would give a major boost to a ballistic missile race in the subcontinent, thereby renewing tensions. It is equally clear that Western countries will be expected to use every opportunity to bear pressure on India to stall the missile programme.

The IGDMP was not created to merely demonstrate its mastery over technology. The missiles have been developed for defence and deterrence purposes and, therefore, must be taken to their logical conclusion. In an un-cooperative international climate where India already finds it difficult to acquire technology, it makes little sense to make quiet demarches to the West in the hope of placating them.

The timing of the Washington Post story is significant in the sense that its release has been timed a few weeks before the Foreign Secretaries8217; meeting. While there could plausibly be other reasons as well for the inspired leak8217;, the most probable pointer would be to get the two countries to create a working group that would discuss the ballistic missile issue. By locking New Delhi into a bilateral debate with Pakistan on this issue, Washington could convincingly argue with New Delhi that the need for the Agni remains diminished in the absence of any identifiable threat.

The government would do well to explain its position on the deployment of Prithvi in as unambiguous a manner as is possible, because Prithvi along with other missiles developed by the IGMDP are part of a national effort which in turn is based on a national consensus.

The writer is director of the Dyan Prakash Institute of Strategic Studies, Pune