India’s Saudi oil imports jump as Riyadh looks to claw back share lost to Russia

Oil imports from Saudi Arabia in September jumped 39.8 per cent month-on-month to 0.73 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since March this year, per provisional vessel tracking data from commodity market analytics firm Kpler. Riyadh had been bleeding market share in India’s oil import basket due to the relatively higher price of its oil than the competing crude grades from other major suppliers—Russia and Iraq. In fact, in June, India’s Saudi Arabian oil imports had crashed to a multi-year low of 0.42 million bpd.

Riyadh now appears to be making an attempt to win back part of its lost market share by offering its oil at a lower price. Market participants expect import volumes from Saudi Arabia to rise further in the coming months, so long as Riyadh is able to keep its barrels competitive for price-sensitive Indian refiners.

“The prospect of losing India is one of the main worries for Saudi Arabia…Many had expected that India would cut down on Russian barrels, but it didn’t. Now the risk is that it (oil imports from Russia) might get even higher,” said Viktor Katona, head of crude analysis at Kpler. The prospect of even higher oil imports from Russia is due to expectations of Indian refiners inking bigger term deals for Russian oil for the coming year.

According to sources in India’s refining sector, if Saudi Arabia gets more aggressive in its effort to increase market share in India, Indian refiners stand to gain as it would lead to increased competition among suppliers. This could force other major suppliers like Russia and Iraq to offer better prices to Indian buyers.

India’s import of Russian crude rose 6.4 per cent over August to 1.88 million bpd, accounting for a staggering 40.2 per cent of New Delhi’s overall crude oil imports of 4.68 million bpd in September, which were 5 per cent higher sequentially.

Iraq, India’s second-largest source market for crude oil, supplied 0.87 million bpd, accounting for 18.7 per cent of New Delhi’s total oil imports in September. Saudi Arabia improved its market share to 15.5 per cent in September from 11.7 per cent in August.

Prior to the war in Ukraine, Iraq and Saudi Arabia were the top two suppliers of crude oil to India. But as the West started weaning itself off Russian energy supplies following Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia started offering discounts on its crude and Indian refiners started snapping up the discounted barrels.

As the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil with a high import dependency level of over 85 per cent, India is extremely sensitive to oil prices. Although trade sources have indicated that discounts on Russian crude have shrunk over time, Indian refiners have evidently remained keen on buying Russian oil as given the high import volumes, even lower discount levels lead to significant savings.

Interestingly, India’s oil imports from its fourth-largest supplier—the United Arab Emirates—rose 18.6 per cent month-on-month to 0.49 million bpd in September, the highest since June 2022. According to Katona, the uptick is driven by Indian refiners’ growing appetite for UAE’s Murban crude, which is increasingly becoming the light grade of choice for bending with Russia’s flagship medium-sour crude Urals. The grade is also the mainstay of India’s Russian oil imports.