Three years on, BJP is at its peak — looking down at a few faultlines

Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah, with their meticulously planned strategies and propaganda, have made a large section of the majority community believe that the BJP is the only party that stands up for them. The high voltage promotion of its ideology and its programmes may have led to discussions on the dilution of pluralism in the country but the BJP claims the atmosphere in the country is favourable to the growth of its ideology and agenda.

More than tangible achievements in terms of improved governance, jobs creation or solutions to the intensifying agrarian crisis, what stands out now is the “feel good factor” created by BJP and its leaders. Take the recent tweet on the handle of a senior BJP leader believed to have some differences of opinion with the top leadership of the party, saying that although the problems in the country had not been addressed under the current leadership of Modi and Shah, the public could not see them: the tweet was deleted within a few hours.

Political analysts point out that the BJP has managed to project criticism of it stand on issues such as cow vigilantism or religious discrimination as assaults on the majority community. In the “positive atmosphere” created by the party and with the credibility its leadership has earned, people/voters have ignored the escalation of tensions along the borders, the worsening situation in Kashmir and the killing of soldiers by Maoists.

The Union Cabinet’s decision to prohibit all vehicles except ambulances and fire brigades from using the beacon lights, seen as a symbol of VIP culture and the success at the International Court of Justice on Kulbhushan Jadhav’s execution by Pakistan are issues that have also earned the BJP a lot of public goodwill.

Such instances have overshadowed crises at the border and in the agrarian sector. Under the BJP government at the Centre and PDP-BJP government in the state, the situation in the Kashmir valley has deteriorated with an increase in militant attacks and more civilians, including students, joining the protests against the government.

However, public opinion has largely backed the government’s muscular policy to weaken the militants and demoralise the separatists. This, BJP leaders argue, is because of the trust people have in the government and the party.

The assembly election victories have made the party seem invincible. A few months ago, there were some apprehensions in the BJP leadership about the state of the party’s affairs in Gujarat where polls will be held later this year. However, post the March 11 victory results in UP, Uttarakhand and the party cobbling together governments in Goa and Manipur, its morale is so high that the party had launched `Mission 150’ for the 182-member Gujarat assembly. (Even under Modi the party never could reach that mark – the party won 127 seats in 2002, 117 in 2007 and 115 in the 2012 assembly elections).

On a more one cautionary note, the party and governments at the Centre or state level may find it difficult to meet the expectations and aspirations the feel good factor has generated. But for now, it seem the BJP can do no wrong.

However, the growing distress in parts of the farming community in Gujarat and other states remains an issue that the party leadership must address. Tomato farmers in Karnataka (another poll bound state in early 2018), chilly farmers in Andhra Pradesh (where the party wants to emerge as an alternative force) and grape farmers in Maharashtra have already held protests. The drought situation in both Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu could slow the BJP’s attempts to grow stronger in those regions.

Issues like cow vigilantism and aggressive Hindutva have helped the BJP to project itself as the champion of the majority community but it will have to deal with increasing social unrest too: the Dalit agitation in different parts of the country is one such example.

Another issue the top leadership could face soon is the discontent among the party cadre. With the party welcoming into its ranks many former members of other political parties across the states, giving them seats and even ministerial posts, many loyal BJP grassroots workers feel let down or marginalized. While the party is confident in Gujarat, the internal tension between the B S Yeddyurappa faction and K S Eswharappa group in Karnataka present a headache for the top leadership. Besides, a Congress JD-S alliance, if there was one, would pose a challenge for the BJP in the southern state.

Factional feuds in other state units in Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana, etc., have been held in check for the time being. However, they could come out into the open once elections draw near in these states.