Exit Polls 2023 Highlights: BJP set to return in Tripura, Nagaland; NPP likely to remain in power in Meghalaya

The Assembly elections in Tripura this year have been relatively peaceful,  a testament to the Election Commission of India’s ‘Mission Zero Violence Poll’ initiative. However, post-elections, a series of violent incidents saw one death and 20 others injured, and registration of 22 FIRs, to which Tripura Chief Electoral Officer Kiran Dinkarrao Gitte said that the figures were overall lower than in the previous election years.

Given the history of violence in Tripura, the poll commission, beginning February 27, is planning to organize peace meetings in 3,337 polling stations of the state where votes were polled on February 16. The members participating use the slogan ‘Amra ohingshar pokkhe, Amra shantir pokkhe’ (We are on the side of non-violence, we are on the side of peace) to fulfill the motives of their meeting.

The results are scheduled to be announced on March 2. Read more.

The BJP is tipped to retain Tripura, return to power in Nagaland with coalition partner National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and marginally improve its tally in Meghalaya, while the Congress, which once dominated the Northeast, is headed for a wipeout in the three states, according to exit polls.

The Election Commission said on Monday that seizures of cash, liquor, drugs, precious metals and other freebies during the Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura elections went up by over 23 times in comparison to the 2018 polls.

In today's exit polls, pollsters predicted BJP majority in Tripura assembly elections.

Tripura had been a bipartisan state for decades with the Congress and the CPM fighting for dominance until the Bharatiya Janata Party came to power in 2018. However, the entry of TIPRA Motha into the battlefield this year provides a new political narrative with the party's leader Pradyot Manikya Debbarma claiming to represent the indigenous communities.

This year, there is a three-way battle between the BJP-IPFT, the CPI(M)-Congress alliance and the newest player, TIPRA Motha with total 259 candidates contesting in the election. The BJP, which is looking to retain power in Tripura, is contesting in 55 seats with its ally IPFT contesting 5 seats. The CPI(M) is contesting in 43 seats, while its ally Congress has candidates in 13. TIPRA Motha has candidates in 42 seats. The Trinamool Congress has fielded candidates in 28 seats. A total of 58 candidates are contesting independently.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to retain power in Nagaland, exit poll projections show.

Neiphiu Rio, the current Chief Minister of Nagaland, is also the chief ministerial face of the NDPP-BJP alliance for the 2023 Assembly polls. A total of 183 candidates from 12 political parties and independents tried their luck in the Nagaland general election today. These include 40 NDPP candidates, 20 BJP, 22 NPF, 23 Congress, 15 LJP (Ram Vilas),  12 NCP, 12 NPP, 9 RPI (Athawale), 7 JD(U), 3  RJD, 1 RPP, 1 CPI and 19 Independent candidates.

The election was held for 59 of the 60 total seats as one BJP MLA has already been elected unopposed on one seat. 

Pollsters today predicted a close race in Meghalaya Assembly Elections 2023.

The state voted for 375 candidates in 59 assembly states. A party needs to win at least 31 seats to win the majority mark in Meghalaya. In the 2018 Meghalaya Assembly election, the NPP won 19 seats and the BJP won two seats. The United Democratic Party (UDP) emerged victorious in six constituencies. Although the Congress emerged as the largest single party with claim over 21 seats, the NPP-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA), came to power with support from BJP, UDP, and other regional parties.

This year, the NPP and BJP are contesting solo. As NPP battles allegations of rampant corruption in the past five years, the BJP's manifesto promises a “corruption-free” Meghalaya. While the Trinamool Congress has fielded 58 candidates, the BJP and Congress have fielded 60 candidates each.

Similar to other media houses, NDTV's 'Poll of Exit Polls' predicted big majority for BJP in Tripura, Nagaland and a close fight in Meghalaya

Adequate security arrangements have been made to ensure that the vote counting process on March 2 is peaceful in Tripura.

Director General of Police (DGP) Amitabh Ranjan is keeping a close watch on the preparations, a senior officer said.

Top officials, including the chief secretary, DGP and the chief electoral officer (CEO), have visited all districts and held meetings with police chiefs, issuing instructions to them to take stock of the situation in their respective areas, news agency PTI reported.

Voting for the Meghalaya and Nagaland Assembly polls concluded peacefully on Monday, the Election Commission (EC) said.

It added that there was no demand for a re-poll from the two northeastern states. While both states have 60 Assembly seats, polling was held on 59 seats each.

"Polling across 3,419 polling stations in Meghalaya and 2,291 in Nagaland went off peacefully today.... Advance planning and extensive monitoring by the commission led by Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar...ensured smooth conduct of elections in the two states with no re-poll reported in any of the 5,710 polling stations," the EC said.

Tripura

NDA: 24
SDF: 21
TMP: 14
Others: 1

Meghalaya

NPP: 22
BJP: 5
Congress: 3
Others: 29

Nagaland

NDA: 44
NPF: 6
Congress: 0
Others: 9

India Today-Axis India exit polls show a close race in Meghalaya for 59 seats. 

NPP: 18-24

Congress: 6-12

BJP: 4-8

Others: 17-29

India Today-Axis India exit polls predict the NDPP alliance to take 38-48 seats in Nagaland out of a total of 60.

NDPP : 38-48

Congress: 1-2

NDF: 3-8

Others: 5-15

BJP : 29-36

Left: 13-21

Congress: 0

BJP : 35-43

NPF: 2-5

NPP: 0-1

Congress: 1-3

Others: 6-11

BJP : 6-11

NPP: 21-26

TMC: 8-13

Congress: 3-6

Others: 10-19

India Today-Axis India exit polls predict the BJP+ to take 36-45 seats out of a total of 60. 

The Left-Congress alliance may end up a distant second with just 6-11 seats. The Tipra Motha Party may end up with 9-16 seats. 

India Today's projected vote share shows the BJP gaining in both urban and rural areas. The pollsters also predict a consolidation of Bengali voters in favour of the BJP

The percentage of voter turnout in the Meghalaya Assembly Elections was recorded  at 74.32 per cent till 5 pm, while it was 81.94 per cent for Nagaland.

As Meghalaya votes on Monday, consensus persists among observers and politicians that parties matter little and it is personalities that drive people’s electoral choices. Yet, there are some subjects that again dominated electoral conversations, featuring routinely in manifestos and public speeches.

The BJP’s Meghalaya unit vice-president, Bernard N Marak, works out of a modest single-window room in the party’s office in Tura in the Garo Hills. But he has kept his sights trained on an ambitious target in the February 27 state Assembly polls — taking on Chief Minister and National People’s Party (NPP) president Conrad Sangma in South Tura, his home turf, as the saffron party’s candidate.

Asenlo Khing, 32, has been appearing for the Nagaland Public Service Commission examinations for the last ten years. Despite making it to the interview stage multiple times, he has not been able to get what thousands of young educated Nagas constantly jostle for: a government job.

Five years after the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP)-BJP alliance edged the Naga People’s Front (NPF) out of power in Nagaland, the alliance will be looking to assert its dominance as the state goes to vote on Monday.

For 15 years (2003-18), as the Naga People’s Front (NPF) ruled Nagaland, it had the BJP as its partner. However, its fortunes nosedived after the 2018 elections, when the BJP broke ties with it to join the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), and the two together went on to form the government, keeping out the NPF, which was the single-largest party. Last year, the NPF joined hands with the state government to seek a common solution to the Naga political problem, rendering the state virtually “Opposition-less”.

Further depleting the NPF as a force, 21 of its MLAs crossed over to the NDPP in 2022, leaving it with four MLAs. Stripped of its most prominent faces, the party is contesting this time in just 22 of the 60 seats in Nagaland. NPF president Shurhozelie Liezietsu speaks to The Indian Express about the party’s prospects and how it hopes to take advantage of the constantly shifting tides in Nagaland politics. Read the interview 

As voting for Gujarat elections ends today, exit polls will be out by the evening. In India, results of exit polls for a particular election are not allowed to be published till the last vote has been cast.

An exit poll asks voters which political party they are supporting after they have cast their votes in an election. In this, it differs from an opinion poll, which is held before the elections. An exit poll is supposed to give an indication of which way the winds are blowing in an election, along with the issues, personalities, and loyalties that have influenced voters.

Meghalaya was granted statehood on January 21, 1972, and since then it has seen 10 Assembly elections.

The percentage of voter turnout in the Nagaland Assembly Elections was recorded  at 72.99 per cent till 3 pm this afternoon, while it was 63.91 per cent for Meghalaya. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also encouraged the voters, particularly the young & first-time voters – in both states to come out and vote in record numbers.

Polling will be held till 4 pm, while the counting of votes will be taken up on March 2. Follow live updates

With the Meghalaya elections underway, Meghalaya CM Conrad Sangma was seen casting his vote in his constituency of South Tura in the Garo Hills.