In NDA’s appeal to Sahni votes after four phases, a Bihar caste reality check

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BJP sources say that an internal assessment of 19 Bihar seats that have voted so far indicates the Mahagathbandhan allies may have been able to transfer their caste votes to each other. Apart from the Congress and RJD, the Grand Alliance includes the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) of Upendra Kushwaha, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Vikasshil Insaan Party of Mukesh Sahni — all parties that draw their support from specific caste groups. The alliance also has an understanding with the CPI(M-L), which is contesting the Ara seat.

On paper, this brings together the RJD’s vote base of Muslims (17% of the population) and Yadavs (14%); the Congress’s share of upper caste (12%) and Dalit (16%) votes; the RLSP’s Kushwaha (8%) votes; Manjhi’s appeal among fellow Scheduled Caste Mushahar (about 2.5% of the population) votes; and Sahni’s ability to draw Sahni (about 8%) votes. The gathbandhan is confident some of that maths has held out on the ground.

Besides, both the ex-NDA allies, Kushwaha and Manjhi, appear to have weathered the separation well, drawing significant crowds at their rallies.

The NDA state government led by Nitish has been assiduously wooing the EBCs, who together comprise 28% of the state population, with sundry schemes. Asked about the RLSP, VIP and HAM(S) before the start of the campaign, the JD(U) leader had dismissed them, refusing to talk about “sadak par chalte hue log (irrelevant people)”.

However, a BJP leader admitted to The Indian Express, “We have heard that the VIP has done well in Khagaria (it voted on April 23), the RJD’s Abdul Bari Siddiqui in Darbhanga (April 29) and the Congress’s Ashok Ram in Samastipur (April 29). We have been wary about Kushwaha, Sahni and Manjhi votes splitting. In Ujiyarpur, where BJP state president Nityanand Rai contested against Kushwaha (polling was on April 29), we have booth reports of a very close fight, with most Kushwaha voters going with the Mahagathbandhan.”

A senior RJD leader said their estimate is that “in at least 20 seats, the victory margin could be between 15,000-20,000. It could be only because of mutual vote transfer among our allies”.

A JD(U) leader conceded this too, adding that “social arithmetic” was giving a tough challenge to the “development and national security plank” of the NDA.

The Mallahs are in sizeable numbers in North Bihar and the Mithilanchal belt — especially Muzaffarpur, Vaishali, Jhanjharpur and Supaul. The Mahagathbandhan has given three seats to the VIP, floated early this year. Its leader Sahni is believed to be giving a stiff challenge to the sitting MP of NDA ally LJP, Choudhary Mehboob Ali Qaisar, in Khagaria, banking on not just Sahni but also Kushwaha and Mushahar votes.

The Musahars, who had tasted political power for the first time with Manjhi’s brief tenure as CM, are spread across Bihar. Contesting the Lok Sabha elections for the first time, the HAM(S) has been allotted three seats in the Mahagathbandhan.

Manjhi’s April 15 meeting at Banmankhi, a Dalit-dominated area of Purnia, drew people from 10-15 km away. As he sought to know why Nitish had made him CM, only to remove him within nine months, the crowd cheered him. Ramamand Rishidev, a local, said: “We have lost all respect for Nitish for trying to use Manjhi as a rubber stamp.”

Kushwaha has been trying for long to establish himself as a Kushwaha leader. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, he had polled 3% of the votes, and in 2015 Assembly polls, 2.84%.

One of the BJP’s prize allies in 2014, he had found himself redundant after the BJP tied hands with Nitish’s JD(U), as the two compete for the same base of OBC Koeri (Akushwaha)-Kurmi votes. While the NDA had offered him three seats, the gathbandhan gave him five.

In Kushwaha-dominated Launa-Khudia village in Jamui Lok Sabha seat, Barun Kumar Kushwaha, who works in a private firm, said, “In 2014, if 10 out of 10 Kushwahas voted for the NDA, it is a vertical split this time.” Even in Purnia where the JD(U) has fielded Santosh Kushwaha and which voted on April 18, the RLSP seemed to have an edge.

RJD leader Tejashwi Prasad Yadav said their party agreed to fight just 19 seats, against 27 in 2014, precisely to accommodate a varied alliance. Since it won 22 out of 40 seats in Bihar in 2004, the RJD’s tally has never crossed four.

In the 2014 polls, the RJD and Congress — then in alliance with the JD(U) — had got over 30% votes. Whether its alliance calculations will add up to a critical 8-10% more is the question.