Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn? What the latest polls and bookies say about the UK elections

What the latest polls say

The latest poll by pollsters YouGov gives the Conservative Party a 28-seat margin of victory, down from 68 two weeks ago. The firm has even said that Johnson could fail to win an outright majority, given the uncertainties inherent to forecasting.

The latest poll result says the Conservative Party will win 339 seats, a smaller improvement from its 2017 result of 317. The main opposition Labour Party are still seen losing ground, but by less than before, and they are forecast to hold on to 231 of the 262 seats they won in 2017. The Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democrats are forecast to gain a handful of seats each.

The results of the final YouGov MRP model for #GE2019 are now here:

Con – 339 seats / 43% vote share
Lab – 231 / 34%
SNP – 41 / 3%
LD – 15 / 12%
Plaid – 4 / 1%
Green – 1 / 3%
Brexit Party – 0 / 3%

Conservative majority of 28https://t.co/IAyXTc89vH pic.twitter.com/yk3dNAhN0p

— YouGov (@YouGov) December 10, 2019

YouGov’s forecasts are based on more than 100,000 interviews with voters over the past week.

Meanwhile, polling company Focaldata predicted the Conservative Party is on track for a 24-seat majority, down sharply from its forecast last month of an 82-seat majority.

Focaldata predicted that the Conservatives would win 337 seats in the 650-seat parliament, followed by Labour on 235, the Scottish National Party with 41, and the Liberal Democrats with 14 based on its forecasting model and recent polling data.

A previous forecast on November 27 by Focaldata had said that the Conservatives would win 366 seats.

For those who find 10pm just too late for your MRP fix, @focaldataHQ is very excited to give our official MRP estimates for #GE2019

Con – 337 seats / 42.0% vote share
Lab – 235 / 33.8%
SNP – 41 / 3.2%
LD – 14 / 13.5%
Plaid – 3 / 0.5%
Green – 1 / 2.8%
Brexit Party – 0 / 3%

1/n

— focaldata (@focaldataHQ) December 10, 2019

What the bookies are saying

According to bookies Betfair, a Tory majority is leading at a two to five margin, with a hung Parliament projection at three is to one.

“The Labour Party need a dramatic late swing in the coming days to shorten that gap,” said a Betfair spokesperson.

Betting exchange Smarkets also has the Tories in the lead, with Labour at risk of losing in some key areas in its so-called heartland towards the north largely over the issue of Brexit.

“Things seem to be changing in the Midlands with the Tories able to connect to people over Brexit,” notes Sarbjit Bakhshi, Head of Political Markets, Smarkets.

The chance of a Conservative majority in #GE19 is down from a high of 78.7% on Monday to a current 68% in our market.

A hung parliament now trading with a 27.8% chance (up from 18.9%) in the last 48 hours. Trade: https://t.co/UQjhVszeQx https://t.co/aqL4alMyvm

— Smarkets (@smarkets) December 11, 2019

What a tactical voting analyst says

Indian-origin anti-Brexit campaigner Gina Miller, who is behind tactical voting site Remain United, released latest data this week which seems to indicate that the Conservative Party lead is on the retreat in the last few days of campaigning.

The group’s analysis, based on a survey by Savanta ComRes, claims that the Johnson-led Conservative Party face a real prospect of failing to win an overall Commons majority – the magic figure of 326 and above, marking the half-way mark of a total 650 MPs.

“These fascinating polling numbers prove that this election is on a knife-edge. If Britain votes tactically on Polling Day – and these results suggest this could happen – then Boris cannot be confident of a majority to deliver his half-baked Brexit,” said Miller.

with inputs from agencies