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This is an archive article published on November 20, 2022

Gujarat polls: Rahul Gandhi to hold two rallies Monday, party hopes for wind in its sails

Rallies in Surat and Rajkot, Congress hopes for spillover effect in tribal areas and Saurashtra, where it did well in 2017

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi at a public meeting during the party's 'Bharat Jodo Yatra', in Maharashtra's Buldhana district, November 18, 2022. (PTI)Congress leader Rahul Gandhi at a public meeting during the party's 'Bharat Jodo Yatra', in Maharashtra's Buldhana district, November 18, 2022. (PTI)

He had refrained from campaigning in Himachal Pradesh, leaving the task of leading the party’s election efforts to his sister and AICC general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. But with a perception gaining ground that the Congress campaign is not taking off in Gujarat, and that the Aam Aadmi Party is far ahead in the optics and narrative game, Rahul Gandhi will address two rallies in Gujarat next week – his first such political engagement since the Bharat Jodo Yatra began on September 7.

Rahul will address two rallies — one in Surat and the other in Rajkot — on November 21. The Bharat Jodo Yatra has a rest day on November 21 as well as November 22.

Rahul was in Gujarat last in the first week of September — just two days before he began his cross-country march from Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu. Rahul has not campaigned in the state so far this election. This has been surprising for party supporters since he had led an energetic campaign in 2017, powering the Congress to 77 seats (its highest since 1985) and stopping the BJP from reaching the 100 mark..

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In Surat, an industrial hub in south Gujarat where the Congress could not make any inroads in 2017 despite the anti-GST protests, the expected impact of demonetisation and Rahul’s aggressive campaigning, the Congress will address a rally in the tribal seat of Mahuva.

Although the BJP had won in Surat and adjoining areas in 2017, the Congress had performed well in the Scheduled Tribe belts in south Gujarat and elsewhere.

Overall, the party had won 17 of the 27 constituencies reserved for STs in the last elections. Fourteen of these constituencies are in south Gujarat.

The party hopes to better its tally this time, but the feedback from the ground is worrying. With Rahul addressing a rally in Mahuva, the party hopes that it will have an impact in nearby reserved constituencies like Vyara, Nizar, Valsad, Kaprada and Dangs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had launched the BJP’s campaign from Kaprada in Valsad on November 6.

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Party leaders claim the Gandhis still retain much goodwill among the tribals and it was important that a member of the family visit a reserved constituency to send a message to the tribals, who form 14% of the electorate.

AAP too is eyeing the tribal vote and Delhi Chief Minister and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has held three rallies in tribal districts.

The Congress is said to be also keen that Priyanka campaign in the state and address a couple of rallies in the tribal region.

Apart from Surat, Rahul will address a public meeting in Rajkot, a BJP bastion which is at the centre of the Saurashtra region. Although the party faced a rout in the Rajkot district in 2017, it had, yet again, performed better than expected in the Saurashtra region, winning 28 seats, up from 15 it held earlier.

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The BJP has been winning all the three Assembly seats in Rajkot for a long time. It was from Rajkot West that Modi had contested his maiden election in 2001, to enter the Gujarat Assembly. Vijay Rupani too had won a bypoll to Rajkot West in 2014 before becoming a minister and subsequently Chief Minister in 2016.

AAP too had set its sights on Rajkot. But the departure of Indranil Rajyaguru, who had quit the Congress to join it earlier this year, is expected to dent its chances. Rajyaguru is back in the Congress now and is the party’s nominee from Rajkot East, a seat he has won before.

Sources in the party said Rahul is likely to return to Gujarat towards the end of the month to campaign for seats which go to polls in the second phase of the elections. He is expected to address two rallies in North and Central Gujarat.

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