Keeping eye out for latest trick in Bihar’s three-party circus

Till the 2024 Lok Sabha elections at least, which is what the BJP and JD(U) have their eyes on for now, this is likely to remain the state of play in Bihar.

BJP

Several party insiders confirm that the standing instruction to them from the very top is to not push Nitish so far away with their attacks, that it makes it impossible for him to make his way back – again – to the party.

The reason is not hard to find. In the 2009 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when the JD(U) was part of the NDA, the alliance had won 32 and 39 Lok Sabha seats respectively of the total 40 in Bihar. If the BJP got 31 in the 2014 polls with allies Ram Vilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha, it was because the RJD led by Lalu Prasad at the time and Nitish were not on the same side then. The BJP leadership fears losing 15-20 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar alone if the RJD-JD(U) alliance lasts till the 2024 polls.

The BJP has been trying to make up for it by stitching an alliance with Paswan’s son Chirag and also seeking EBC Mallah leader Mukesh Saini and Kushwaha, who is now with the JD(U). But these friends do not carry the punch of the tried and tested combination with Nitish.

Sources said it has been conveyed to the Nitish camp how a return to the NDA can help the JD(U) leader — the last of the Bihar titans — extend his political longevity beyond 2024 and even the 2025 Assembly elections, with an important position at the Centre. This is something the RJD can’t guarantee Nitish as there is no sign yet of the grand Opposition unity that could catapult him to kingmaker position.

The BJP is well aware that by anointing Tejashwi virtually as his successor, Nitish is at least hoping for bigger things after 2025.

RJD

Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav has grown fast into the job of leading the RJD with illness sidelining Lalu. So while acknowledging Nitish’s supremacy when he can, Tejashwi has let it be known subtly that, in terms of numbers, it is the RJD that is the senior party in the relationship.

The RJD took its time acting against its leader Sudhakar Singh, the son of its state unit chief who quit the Nitish ministry criticising it and has kept taking potshots at it since. While it has now served Singh a notice, this does not mention his constant personal attacks on Nitish.

The RJD again dragged its feet over its leader and Education Minister Chandra Shekhar’s statement calling Ramacharitmanas a “divisive text” for some of its observations regarding some castes. As the BJP used it to go to town against the Bihar government, the RJD first defended the minister and then condemned him in a way that conveyed what it wanted conveyed – that the BJP criticism was a sign of its brand of Hindutva, and that its backward class should know the party stood by them.

The JD(U) too did not press the matter as it believes it has a masterstroke when it comes to caste politics in its hands with the ongoing caste survey, which on Friday got the approval of the Supreme Court.

Apart from keeping the JD(U) on its toes, Tejashwi keeps taking the BJP on, underlining that it does not take the threat from the party lightly. “There can be fresh Enforcement Directorate raids, new cases against me and a return to temple politics by the BJP. Nitish Kumar and I know the BJP too well now,” he has said.

JD(U)

While in public JD(U) leaders dismiss any reconciliation with the BJP as the latter’s “wishful thinking”, in private, they admit it suits the party’s politics to keep both it and the RJD on tenterhooks. This in turn makes Nitish more valuable as 2024 approaches.

Nitish might have faced somewhat of a setback with his Telengana counterpart K Chandrashekar Rao keeping him out of his big Opposition rally recently but, argues JD(U) national spokesperson K C Tyagi: “Once leaders like KCR, Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal are done with their individual posturings, the bigger urgency of strong Opposition unity would crystallise and this is where Nitish has a role to play.”