With Karnataka win, Congress gets a template for other state polls, leverage at Oppn table

Given that four states will go to polls in the coming months, including Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh that it rules, the Karnataka victory gives the Congress the much-needed confidence to approach these polls aggressively and the political space to argue that it can still fire up the imagination of voters.

But, there is also a need to temper the exhilaration of victory with prudence. It is not necessary that the Karnataka victory will be automatically replicated in the 2024 elections even in the southern state. The Congress had won the three states of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh in November-December 2018 but was wiped out in these states when the Lok Sabha elections were held four months later.

The Congress drew a blank in Rajasthan and could manage to win one seat each in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Even in Karnataka, the Congress-JD(S) coalition government was in power when the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but the BJP swept the polls, winning 25 of the 28 seats. The Congress and the JD(S) ended up with one seat each.

Bragging rights

The Congress and most of the Opposition are now engaged in talks about cobbling together some sort of a broad front against the BJP for the 2024 elections. The Congress is seen by many of them as an electoral burden. And then there are questions over whether it has the moral right to lead the Opposition alliance.

After the grand alliance failed to reach the halfway mark in Bihar, its allies such as the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the CPI(ML) argued that the Congress was perhaps the weakest link in the alliance, perhaps dragging it down from the halfway mark. The Congress, which contested 70 seats, could win only 19, registering a poor strike rate compared to the other constituents of the grand alliance.

In the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, the DMK gave the Congress 25 seats as against 41 in 2016. The big win in Karnataka, adding to its victory in Himachal Pradesh just a few months ago, will give the Congress bragging rights when it sits on the Opposition high table. Around the same time last year, the Congress had only two chief ministers — the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also had two — and now it will have four.

Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka

The Congress has a formidable leadership and robust organisation in Karnataka. In the 2018 elections, the party could win only 80 seats, down from 122 in 2013. Although it entered into a post-poll tie-up with the JD(S) and formed the government, that mandate was clearly in favour of the BJP, which had emerged as the single-largest party with 104 seats.

The Congress hopes a huge win now, a year ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, will help it reverse the tide in the general elections. The party is keen to roll out all its election promises, including the five big-ticket ones, as soon as possible to send a message to voters that it means business.

The party now has only one MP — D K Shivakumar’s brother D K Suresh — in Karnataka. It had seen the worst. Any improvement in the the tally will only be a gain for the Congress and a setback for the BJP, which now has 25 MPs from the state. The general elections will be a direct battle between the BJP and the Congress in the state and even if the Congress manages to gain a few seats, it will help lower the BJP’s overall tally.

The Congress had been claiming for some time that it was facing a funds crunch. Adding a big state like Karnataka to its kitty will help it raise resources for the all-important battle for the Lok Sabha.

Mallikarjun Kharge

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has managed to win his home state, just months after BJP president J P Nadda suffered an embarrassing defeat on his home turf of Himachal Pradesh. Kharge cannot claim much credit for the Himachal victory, or for that matter take the blame for the Gujarat defeat, as the elections were held soon after he took over as Congress president.

But he can certainly share credit for the Karnataka victory. Party sources indicate that there was a significant shift in the Dalit voting pattern in favour of the Congress this time in Karnataka. While a detailed analysis will show the extent of the Dalit vote shift, Kharge can breathe easy now as the party has won two states. It is another matter that it lost four — Gujarat, Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland — since he took over as the Congress president.

Gains of a hyper-local campaign

As in Himachal Pradesh, where the Congress’s campaign was centred around promises such as reinstating the old pension scheme, the creation of one lakh jobs, and monthly financial assistance of Rs 1,500 to every woman in the state, the party’s campaign in Karnataka too revolved around local issues and its five guarantees.

The party believes that focusing entirely on state-specific issues can help build a counter-narrative to the PM Narendra Modi-led BJP blitz. It is a success story that the Opposition party plans to emulate in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh where the party has a vibrant organisation and strong line of leadership like in Karnataka.

Strong local leadership

Despite the euphoria, the Congress realises that the high command can only do so much. Strong local leadership and a robust party organisation were the key to setting a counter-narrative to take on the BJP. Ironically, the BJP’s downfall was also because it lacked a strong line of leadership in the state and relied heavily on Modi’s charisma. The sidelining of former Chief Minister and Lingayat strongman B S Yediyurappa proved to be a blessing in disguise for the Congress. Party leaders say that factional feuds often hog the narrative but healthy competition between two or more sets of leaders has always been beneficial, provided the central leadership manages to inject a sense of purpose and give the right direction.

While much is being said about the intensive campaign of the Gandhis and the impact of the Bharat Jodo Yatra, party leaders accept that without a strong local narrative and leaders with caste and community support shifting the momentum in its favour is difficult. An aggressive social media campaign or a media blitz can only be a force multiplier.