Congress hopes to script victory in Karnataka but CM question hangs over its head

Harbouring chief ministerial ambitions, both Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar had a series of tussles over the issue in the run-up to the elections. If the Congress wins, the high command will have to decide whom it wants for the top job.

Siddaramaiah (left) and D K Shivakumar (right). (Photo: PTI/File)

3 min readBengaluruMay 13, 2023 08:19 AM IST First published on: May 12, 2023 at 10:28 PM IST

The Congress is hopeful of returning to power in Karnataka on Saturday but with a victory will come the burning question: who will be the Chief Minister in the event of a Congress win, D K Shivakumar or Siddaramaiah?

Congress leaders on Friday held virtual meetings to discuss and analyse, among other things, the number of seats it expects to receive. Shivakumar, the state Congress president, was in his hometown Kanakapura and returned to Bengaluru on Friday. He also had a meeting with All India Congress Committee (AICC) president Mallikarjun Kharge at his home in the capital city. Siddaramaiah, meanwhile, was planning to travel to Mysuru by Friday evening but insisted on staying back in the capital.

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The Congress is hoping that its intense campaign focused on alleged corruption during the BJP-led government’s tenure would bring it to power. As the results are declared, these are the five things to look out for:

1. If the Congress tally crosses 125 seats, and the BJP’s reduces below 80, the Congress’s path to power will be without any hurdle. But the party will then have to deal with a tussle between Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah for the CM’s post. Both leaders have thrown their hats into the ring and there were reports of frequent run-ins between the two camps in the run-up to the elections.

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2. If the Congress emerges as the single-largest party but fails to get a clear majority, the grand old party will depend on the unconditional support of the JD(S) to form the government. According to sources, the H D Kumaraswamy-led JD(S) is open to forming a coalition government but one condition is likely to be that Kumaraswamy should become the CM. That will put a spanner in the works of Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah. A “consensus CM” can even be Congress leaders such as G Parameshwara, H K Patil, and R V Deshpande.

3. The worst-case scenario for the Congress is it does not cross 100 seats and remains somewhere around 80-90 constituencies. In that case, the BJP will have a clear path to power with the help of the JD(S) and Independents.

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4. A Congress victory will give the party a big boost ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha elections and will be a shot in the arm for AICC general secretary and Karnataka in-charge Randeep Surjewala, who has toiled in the state for nearly one-and-a-half years.

5. The Congress opened its doors to high-profile BJP defectors from the Lingayat community such as former CM Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi. Their performance and ability to transfer Lingayat votes to the Congress will be closely watched. The party will also be hoping to make use of the Lingayats’ simmering discontent with the BJP to make inroads in the key BJP voter base.