Far from done, Sasikala takes another shot in the dark

Since she came out of prison after four years, in a corruption case, Sasikala or Chinamma as her supporters call her – drawing on her association with Amma — has kept the AIADMK on its toes while, more than once, flattering to deceive.

Expected to seize the party back from former chief minister EPS and ex-deputy CM OPS – who were seen to have engineered her ouster from the AIADMK — Sasikala had returned to Tamil Nadu from the prison in Bengaluru where she was jailed with a rousing road show in February 2021. She had declared that no one could rule her out in Tamil Nadu and, while asking people to vote for the AIADMK, said she would not let “enemy capture the government”.

Given the lingering legacy of Jayalalithaa that she embodied, and her own hold on the ground via her nephew Dhinakaran’s AMMK, Sasikala was expected to live up to those words.

However, within a month, just before the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections of 2021, she had made a U-turn, announcing her decision to “step aside” from politics and appealing to everyone to unite and work for “Amma’s rule”. Her rivals asserted with glee that she had chickened away from riling the BJP, given the cases still pending against her.

Dhinakaran, who drew his strength from Sasikala’s, has seen his fortunes slide since. Once touted as one of the most powerful leaders in the state, he is barely seen or heard now, and is busy fighting his own Enforcement Directorate cases.

But Sasikala keeps stirring the waters off and on. After the AIADMK lost the 2021 Assembly election, her “abstention” from politics appeared to end. And as differences between EPS and OPS spilled over in the open, her camp started releasing recordings of her “surprise” phone calls to ordinary party cadres in districts. In those calls, she promised them an active role in the party, and said she would do the needful to “rescue” the AIADMK.

A source close to Sasikala pointed out that her “withdrawal” was tactical, that she had nothing to gain from shouldering the AIADMK Assembly campaign when the DMK was expected to sweep the election, and did. She also feared that the loss would be blamed on her by the EPS camp. Post the AIADMK defeat though, the scenario changed. “Reconnecting with the OPS camp, which supports her re-entry into the party, was beneficial for her long-term plans,” the source said.

EPS, on the contrary, is not as keen on Sasikala’s return. While it was OPS who was once considered a natural CM choice after Jayalalithaa’s death – having served as a selfless fill-in every time she had to step down over legal issues – EPS not only beat him to it eventually but also controls the AIADMK now. Sasikala would be a power centre that he can do without.

In fact, after its 2021 electoral loss, the AIADMK leadership had cracked down on leaders seen as having Sasikala links. Among the Sasikala supporters who spoke up was C Ve Shanmugam, former law minister. “People wanted us to come back to power. But many reasons led to our defeat, including (the loss of) minority votes… Due to the alliance with the BJP, we lost all minority votes,” Shanmugam said.

Recently, the AIADMK expelled prominent leader A Anwar Raajhaa, for also criticising the alliance with the BJP and backing Sasikala.

The source close to Sasikala said she sees an opening to move in now due to EPS’s own legal troubles. He is being probed for the Kodanad Estate heist and murders. A tea estate owned by Jayalalithaa, where she and Sasikala often stayed, Kodanad had seen a mysterious robbery followed by two mysterious deaths in April 2017. Recently, a Tamil Nadu Police SIT questioned Sasikala on the matter.

However, there are others who point out that the former AIADMK general secretary could change her mind, like she has done earlier. A state-wide tour in July 2021, for example, had never materialised.

“She missed generating a real wave at the time of the Assembly polls by deciding to stay away from the campaign. Even her popularity at the time of her release from Bengaluru prison may have lost intensity,” said a source.

Another AIADMK leader, a keen observer of her politics, said that Sasikala’s options were limited. “There are cases against her… The BJP will not see any move that weakens ally AIADMK before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections favourably. Why should she face the wrath of the BJP, particularly when the only person for whom she would essentially be taking the risk in the long term is Dhinakaran, with whom she is no longer as close?” the leader said.