Compulsions in Andhra drive its big three — YSRCP, TDP, JSP — into BJP orbit

Chief Minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, while making it clear that the YSRCP will not join any alliance, supports the BJP because of compulsions allegedly related to Central funding. The state is heavily dependent on the Union government to fund the Polavaram dam project, as well as to compensate for the revenue deficit suffered during the bifurcation in 2014 that led to the creation of Telangana. The state’s total revenue deficit for the 2014-’15 fiscal year was Rs 22,948.76 crore, of which the Centre had released only Rs 4,117.89 crore till this March.

The cordial relations maintained by the CM and the YSRCP MPs with the BJP, especially Amit Shah, bore fruit when the Centre on May 23 sanctioned another Rs 10,460 crore — the biggest-ever tranche of Central funds for Andhra since the bifurcation. The Centre followed it up on June 6 by releasing Rs 12,911 crore for the Polavaram project.

YSRCP leaders said this was the result of frequent meetings with the BJP brass. However, Jagan, who has encouraged the cultivation of good relations with the BJP, does not want to join any alliance involving the BJP as he does not want to alienate his large minority vote bank in the state. Last week, the CM told a delegation of Muslim leaders worried about the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) that the YSRCP would not do anything that would undermine the well-being and welfare of minorities.

TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu, who pulled out of the NDA in 2018 over the Centre not responding to its demand for special category status, also wants the BJP’s support to fight the Assembly elections next year. Of late, Naidu has been saying at public meetings that if the TDP does not win in 2024, it will be his last election. In fact, TDP leaders feel the party’s future itself will be at stake if the YSRCP sweeps back to power.

The BJP, which earlier closed the door on the TDP, has recently started warming up to Naidu, who met Amit Shah on June 4 to talk about the possible tripartite alliance against the YSRCP. TDP sources said while the BJP had responded positively, it had yet to spell out its stand on the alliance.

“The TDP is compelled to seek BJP’s support, otherwise we can’t counter the YSRCP which is on a strong footing. So while we may not join any alliance at the Centre involving the BJP, we seek the latter’s support at the state level,” a TDP leader said. Naidu is also cautious about upsetting the state’s minorities, especially Muslims, by rejoining the NDA. So, even as he seeks the BJP’s support, he too has assured a delegation of Muslim leaders that the TDP will stand by their community on UCC.

Pawan Kalyan, whose movie Bro was released to packed theatres this week, has sought out the BJP ever since he launched his party in March 2014, just before the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh. While the JSP did not contest in 2014, it supported the TDP-BJP, which is believed to have given the alliance an edge in its victory.

While the TDP fell out with the BJP, Pawan Kalyan continued to maintain cordial relations with BJP leaders, especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Although the JSP contested in the 2019 elections, it could win only one seat — Palacole — in West Godavari district. Kalyan himself lost from the constituencies of Gajuwaka and Bhimavaram. However, Kalyan believes a BJP-TDP-JSP alliance can defeat the YSRCP. “JSP got a 5.54% vote share in 2019. If the TDP’s vote share of approximately 39% hasn’t been eroded, and considering that there will be some anti-incumbency by the elections next year, a tie-up with the BJP could be a formidable combination to dislodge the YSRCP. Kalyan is working to convince the BJP to admit the TDP in the alliance,” a party leader said.