AAP’s national expansion: ‘Not in a hurry, but there is no time to waste either’

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The AAP’s strategy has brought to the fore a central question that was raised even in 2014, when the party had decided to contest the general elections across India: Is the AAP in a hurry?

“We were barely a year old, with limited presence in Delhi, where we were showing promise. There was practically no time for us to prepare to contest across India. The AAP in 2022 is a mature and sure-footed party, with a clear expansion strategy. We are not going to contest polls in all states at once. So, we are not in a hurry, but there is no time to waste either,” a top AAP leader said.

Among the states chosen by the AAP so far, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh go to polls later this year; Karnataka in early 2023; Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan in late 2023; Haryana in 2024; and Bihar in 2025. Naturally, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, where Delhi and Punjab Chief Ministers Arvind Kejriwal and Bhagwant Mann have already taken out joint roadshows, are the party’s prime focus areas right now.

Sandeep Pathak, AAP’s Gujarat election in-charge, told The Indian Express the Congress’ inability in successive elections to capitalise on a “distinct undercurrent for change” in the state is among the factors that will help the Kejriwal-led party make gains.

“In the rural areas, the Congress has failed to consolidate the yearning for change. Voters say the Congress has failed every time, so this time they will not waste their vote. In the urban centres, the core BJP voters are unlikely to be swayed by the AAP. But there are also those who have been voting for the BJP only because the Congress is not an alternative for them,” Pathak said.

He claimed that the perception that Gujarat is industrially developed with affluent urban centres is a manufactured “bubble”. “There are takers for the AAP’s welfare model everywhere, including in Gujarat. You talk about development. People do not even get minimum wages here. The poor among the urban electorate are beginning to understand the benefits of the AAP’s policies on water, power, healthcare and education. They would be tempted to vote for the AAP,” Pathak said.

Pathak, who played a crucial role in scripting Mann’s rise to power in Punjab, also believes that the Congress is a divided house in Gujarat, a factor that the AAP hopes to gain from even in Haryana. “Congress will witness more infighting in Haryana than in Punjab because of the presence of at least four factions,” said an AAP strategist.

The AAP is also banking on the “unpopularity” of the BJP- Jannayak Janta Party government led by Manohar Lal Khattar as Chief Minister and Dushyant Chautala as his deputy. “Chautala is in fact more unpopular than Khattar; Jats feel betrayed by him… If the Congress promotes the Hooda family, the non-Jats will feel alienated. In a situation like this, the AAP is primed to benefit from its baggage-free approach. One must keep in mind, 80 per cent of Haryana is bound by Delhi and Punjab — both AAP-ruled states — and people can see how their basic necessities will be taken care of if they give us a chance,” added the leader, who did not wish to be named.

Yet, AAP’s presence in Punjab has thrown up complexities for the party’s Haryana unit, especially on the dispute over Chandigarh and the Sutlej Yamuna Link Canal. Last week, the Punjab assembly passed a resolution seeking complete transfer of the UT to the state, drawing censure from political parties in Haryana.

Down south, in Karnataka, the AAP plans to begin its attempts to make inroads through the state’s northern districts such as Belagavi, Gulbarga, Raichur, among others. An AAP leader involved in planning the party’s southern foray said it has chosen to focus on the northern parts of Karnataka first as the belt has a concentration of people who can understand and speak Hindi.

In Telangana, Kejriwal is likely to take out a roadshow on April 14, the birth anniversary of Babasaheb Ambedkar. The party’s mercurial Delhi legislator Somnath Bharti, entrusted with leading its Telangana campaign, has been making aggressive statements against Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao, at a time when he is eyeing a national role.

“Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, even we had experimented with opposition fronts. We even hosted a rally of Opposition leaders, many against whom we had agitated against in the past, at Jantar Mantar. But over time we have realised that people who gravitate towards us feel repulsed by such moves. So in the run up to 2024, you will see less of that happening. The idea is to expand to an extent where the AAP will be seen as the natural alternative,” a member of AAP’s Political Affairs Committee (PAC) said.

But for the AAP, replicating its Punjab success in other states will be easier said than done, particularly considering its dismal performance in Uttarakhand and Goa — states where political equations are similar to the ones where the AAP hopes to grow over the next three years.

“Unlike Punjab, these are states where the BJP is the hegemonic power and sets the terms of debate, on nationalism, Hindutva etc. But we fought a hyper-aggressive BJP in Delhi on these very issues. In Punjab, many forget that the AAP also fought against the religious right-wing represented by sections of the Akalis. Yes, it will be a challenge but we know how to tackle the BJP without walking into their trap,” another AAP leader said.