What trade can do
As prime ministers Manmohan Singh and Yousaf Raza Gilani meet in Mohali today,China and Taiwan will most certainly not figure in their talks. But even a cursory look at the trade politics between these two political entities which do not even recognise each other should provide some interesting cues to Delhi and Islamabad. Despite considerable political opposition at home,Taiwans president Ma Ying-Jeou has taken some big steps towards more rapid economic integration with mainland China.
Taiwan currently exports $14 billion to China annually and most of the goods are now fully or partially exempt from import tariffs. Chinese exports to Taiwan are worth $3 billion on an annual basis. Taiwanese companies have investments worth $200 billion in mainland China. Taiwan will now allow Chinese companies to pick up 10 per cent stake in its technology companies.
Tourist flows are booming. With 1.65 million mainland tourists arriving in Taiwan,China has replaced Japan as the main source of inward traffic. More than 5 million Taiwanese (whose total population is a little above 20 million) travelled to China last year.
Currently,five Taiwanese and nine Chinese carriers are entitled to operate 370 flights a week to meet mounting demand from the booming trade and travel ties between China and the island. China and Taiwan agreed to direct chartered flights in 2008 and carrier flights in 2009.
Even a simple modification of the existing Indo-Pak agreement on religious tourism could dramatically boost movement of people across border. Similarly,the full implementation of the South Asian Free Trade Agreement by Pakistan could transform the economies of the border provinces in both countries.
Sceptics would say the Chinese are practical people and the South Asians are not. Meeting in the Punjab,which stands to gain most from the normalisation of Indo-Pak relations,Singh and Gilani might want to demonstrate that they can inject at least a modicum of economic pragmatism into bilateral relations.
As in Pakistan,so in Taiwan there is concerns that opening up to the larger neighbour would swamp its separate identity. President Ma,however,is arguing that deeper integration with China would transform the economic fortunes of Taiwan and that this process can be advanced step-by-step without a threat to the islands separate identity.
To intervene or not
Official China continues to affirm that non-intervention is a high principle of Beijings foreign policy. Chinese analysts are bringing a measure of sophistication to the debate in the context of the current Western military intervention in Libya.
Shen Dingli,a professor at Shanghais Fudan University and a stimulating columnist,has a line of thought that should interest Delhis strategic community.
Pointing to quantum physics,where even the observation of a phenomenon could alter it,Shen says non-interference is itself a form of interference and produces its own effects on the world. Complete non-interference is impossible in practice,Shen adds.
Shen points to the modern Chinese tradition of solidarity with people fighting for just causes. He refers to the African movements against apartheid,the fight of South Korean students against military rule,and the Okinawa islanders opposition to American occupation.
These actions,according to Shen,reflected the ideals of fairness and justice that inspired the Communist Party to found the Peoples Republic. Chinas stand on these issues boosted the countrys standing in the world in modern terminology,its soft power.
Sticking unconditionally to the principle of non-intervention,Shen insists,would be to depart from the United Nations Charter. A doctrine of conditional and limited intervention best fits both the reality as well as an ideal model of international relations.
The judgment on when to intervene,Shen concludes,must be defined by the specific circumstances of a particular case and the nature of Chinas national interests.
Tibets upward slope
Even as the Dalai Lama withdraws from his traditional political role,China has sustained its offensive against him. In a speech on Sunday,Padma Choling,chairman of the Tibet autonomous regional government,said any efforts that jeopardise Tibets hard-gained stability and progress are doomed to failure. In a reference to the Dalai Lama,he reiterated that China will decisively foil any attempts to split Tibet from China or to restore the hierarchical social system characterised by theocracy.
Marking the anniversary of the Dalai Lamas flight from Lhasa this month 52 years ago,Padma Choling counted the gains from Chinese rule and the end to the old order in Tibet.
The regions GDP reached 50.8 billion yuan ($ 7.75 billion) in 2010,with an annual growth rate of 12.4 per cent,according to Choling,He added that per capita incomes in Tibet have doubled since 2005.
The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,New Delhi
